Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT)
OvervaluedFundamental
64
Price
$149.92
Market Cap
$6.21B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Commvault Systems is a US software company that sells data protection and 'cyber resiliency' software: tools that back up a company's data, applications and identity systems and then bring them back after a ransomware attack, an outage or an accidental deletion. Its platform, Commvault Cloud, covers workloads that sit on a customer's own servers, in public clouds such as AWS or Azure, and inside SaaS applications, and is packaged into three tiers — Operational Recovery (backup and restore), Autonomous Recovery (automated, tested disaster recovery) and Cyber Recovery (threat and anomaly detection plus recovery into a clean environment). Customers are large enterprises, mid-sized companies and government agencies in banking, insurance, healthcare, manufacturing, energy and the public sector. Revenue for the fiscal year ended 31 March 2026 was $1,183.7 million, up 19% year over year. The company names Rubrik, Cohesity and Veeam as its main competitors, alongside the cloud hyperscalers, and notes that many of them have greater financial resources and larger installed bases.
How it makes money
Commvault sells almost entirely by subscription. A customer either buys a term software licence that it runs itself, or buys the same capability as a SaaS service that Commvault hosts; both are recognised as subscription revenue, which reached $768.3 million in fiscal 2026, 30% more than the year before. Around this sit three smaller streams: customer support contracts ($320.4 million), a shrinking book of legacy perpetual licences ($43.2 million, down 22%) and professional services such as implementation, consulting and training ($51.7 million). The economics are recurring rather than transactional — total annual recurring revenue was $1,121.6 million at 31 March 2026, up 21%, of which SaaS ARR was $400.2 million, and the SaaS net dollar retention rate was 122%, meaning existing SaaS customers spent 22% more than a year earlier. Commvault reaches buyers mostly through other people: roughly 90% of fiscal 2026 revenue came through indirect channels — resellers, distributors, systems integrators, OEMs and cloud marketplaces — and only about 10% directly.
Revenue by segment
Term-based software licences that customers run themselves and cloud-hosted SaaS offerings, sold to enterprises, mid-sized companies and public bodies. It is the growth engine: $768.3 million in fiscal 2026 against $589.7 million the year before.
Maintenance and technical support contracts attached to software already installed, including the legacy perpetual base. It grew 4% to $320.4 million in fiscal 2026 — a stable annuity rather than a growth line.
Professional services sold around the software: implementation, consulting, training and managed services. $51.7 million in fiscal 2026, up 21%.
One-off, indefinite software licences — the model Commvault sold before the shift to subscription. It is deliberately in run-off: $43.2 million in fiscal 2026, 22% lower than the year before.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · NarrowBackup software is wired into a customer's whole estate — servers, virtual machines, containers, databases, endpoints and SaaS applications — and holds years of retained copies under retention and compliance rules. Ripping it out means re-certifying recovery for every workload and deciding what to do with the existing archive, which makes replacement slow and risky rather than impossible; the 122% SaaS net dollar retention reported for fiscal 2026 is consistent with customers staying and expanding. The limits are real, though: the company itself says it competes with Rubrik, Cohesity and Veeam and with the hyperscalers' own tools, that many rivals have greater financial resources and larger installed bases, and that roughly 90% of its revenue reaches the customer through non-exclusive channel partners who also carry competing products.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalBackup and recovery is closer to insurance than to discretionary IT: data must be protected whatever the economy does, retention is often a legal obligation, and ransomware does not wait for an upturn — which is why the subscription base kept compounding (total ARR +21% in fiscal 2026) and support revenue grew even modestly. What does move with the cycle is the size and timing of new deals. Commvault's own filing says enterprise sales and implementation cycles are long and unpredictable, and that economic volatility, trade policy and tariffs can push customers to defer spending; a portion of revenue also depends on government budget cycles. The result is a recurring floor with cyclical expansion on top: renewals hold up in a downturn, new capacity, seat growth and upgrades slow down.
Key risks
- An intensely competitive industry against better-resourced rivals — Commvault states that its industry is intensely competitive and that many competitors have greater financial resources, larger installed customer bases and broader product lines, which may let them outcompete it on features, pricing and market reach.
- Dependence on indirect sales channels — The company relies on resellers, distributors, systems integrators and OEMs under non-exclusive agreements. Losing a key partner, or a partner choosing to push a competing product, could materially reduce revenue.
- Pricing pressure and the cost of delivering SaaS — Commvault flags that it may be unable to price competitively while managing the cost of delivering its subscription and SaaS offerings; cloud infrastructure spending is ongoing and substantial, and may not produce the expected return if demand falls short.
- Long and unpredictable enterprise sales cycles — Sales and implementation cycles with large customers are long and hard to forecast, which makes the timing of revenue uncertain and can swing results from one quarter to the next.
- Product defects and security vulnerabilities — The solutions are complex and may contain undetected errors, defects or vulnerabilities. For a vendor whose job is protecting other companies' data, such failures would damage customer confidence and raise support costs.
- Reliance on third-party platforms and interoperability — The products must interoperate with third-party operating systems, cloud environments and hardware. Changes made by those providers, or supply chain disruption, could delay releases or increase costs.
- Macroeconomic, trade and geopolitical volatility — Volatility in the global economy, including changes in trade policy and tariffs, may cause customers to cut or delay IT spending and may slow collections.
- Concentration of operations in India and international exposure — Significant operations in India expose the company to wage inflation, competition for talent and political or labour disruption, while international sales bring currency swings, local regulation and geopolitical conflict.
- Restructuring carried out in fiscal 2026 — New restructuring plans were implemented during fiscal 2026 and the company cannot guarantee they will deliver the intended savings or that they will not disrupt the organisation.
- Indebtedness, including the convertible notes — Existing and future debt, including the senior convertible notes, limits financial flexibility and could require cash or lead to dilution of existing shareholders.
- IT failures and cybersecurity incidents at Commvault itself — The company may suffer IT system failures, network disruption or cybersecurity incidents of its own, which could interrupt operations, trigger regulatory penalties and erode customer trust.
- Exposure to government customers — A portion of revenue comes from government entities, where budget cycles and procurement rules make demand unpredictable and add compliance obligations.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 32% of revenue
The concentration is in distribution, not in end demand. Commvault discloses that one channel partner accounted for 32% of fiscal 2026 revenues (35% in fiscal 2025 and 36% in fiscal 2024) and a second for 11% (below 10% in the prior two years). These are distributors that resell to thousands of end customers, so the underlying demand is spread out — but the commercial relationship runs through a very small number of non-exclusive intermediaries, and the filing names reliance on indirect channels as a risk factor in its own right. No individual end customer is disclosed as exceeding 10% of revenues.
The case for
Buyers argue that Commvault has completed the hard part of a business-model transition that many software companies stumble on: subscription revenue reached $768.3 million in fiscal 2026 and grew 30%, total revenue grew 19% to $1,183.7 million, and total annual recurring revenue reached $1,121.6 million, up 21% — so the great majority of the business is now recurring rather than sold anew each year. They point to SaaS ARR of $400.2 million and a SaaS net dollar retention rate of 122%, which they read as evidence that customers not only stay but buy more, and to the repositioning from plain backup towards cyber recovery — detecting an intrusion and restoring into a clean environment — as a way to sell into security budgets rather than only storage budgets. They also note the reported non-GAAP gross margin of 81.8% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and the breadth of the channel, with roughly 90% of revenue carried by partners the company does not have to pay to employ.
The case against
Sellers fear that the competitive field is the problem the numbers do not show. Commvault's own filing calls the industry intensely competitive and concedes that many rivals — it names Rubrik, Cohesity and Veeam, plus the cloud hyperscalers whose platforms include their own protection tools — have greater financial resources and larger installed customer bases, which raises the question of whether today's growth can be held without giving ground on price; the filing separately flags the risk of being unable to price competitively while carrying the cost of delivering SaaS. They also point to the fragility hidden in the route to market: about 90% of revenue passes through non-exclusive channel partners, one of which alone accounted for 32% of fiscal 2026 revenues, so a single distributor's change of allegiance matters more than any single customer's. Add the legacy perpetual line shrinking 22%, support revenue growing only 4%, long and unpredictable enterprise sales cycles that make quarters lumpy, restructuring plans launched in fiscal 2026 whose savings the company will not guarantee, convertible notes that could dilute existing holders, and heavy operational concentration in India, and the bear view is of a business that must keep spending to stay in front.
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Named by Commvault as a primary competitor: Rubrik sells a cyber-resilience platform built on immutable backups and ransomware recovery to the same large-enterprise and public-sector buyers.
Its PowerProtect data-protection software and appliances compete for the same enterprise backup budgets, often bundled with the storage infrastructure Commvault's software runs alongside.
IBM Storage Protect and Storage Defender address the same enterprise backup and cyber-recovery requirements, particularly in the banking and public-sector accounts Commvault targets.
Named by Commvault as a primary competitor: Veeam sells backup and recovery software for the same virtual, physical and multi-cloud workloads, and is the vendor Commvault most often meets in enterprise and mid-market deals.
Named by Commvault as a primary competitor: Cohesity sells backup and secondary-data management to the same enterprise accounts, and after absorbing Veritas NetBackup it holds the largest share of the data protection market.
Druva sells cloud-native, fully managed backup for SaaS applications, endpoints and cloud workloads, competing directly with Commvault Cloud's subscription offering.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$1.22B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$68M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$237M
Total Equity
$7M
Total Liabilities
$1.88B
Current Ratio
2.04
Interest Coverage
14.95
Debt/EBITDA
10.88
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$94.84
Current Price
$149.92
Margin of Safety
-58.1%
Fair Value Range
$61.64 - $128.03
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
96.10
ROE
942.8%
P/B Ratio
119.37
P/FCF
24.04
Gross Margin
81.1%
ROIC
4.6%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
4.6%
WACC
8.4%
ROIC − WACC
-3.7 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 10.71%
- Price CAGR 11.26%
- Gross Margin 81.1%
- P/FCF 24.04
- Operating Margin 6.1%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 56.1%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 10.3%
- Analyst Consensus 62% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 11.9%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 3.88
- Share Dilution -1.3%
- Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Failed (8)
- ROIC 4.6%
- P/B Ratio 119.37
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Net Margin Trend 5.6% vs 7.7%
Unavailable (2)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Sanjay Mirchandani | President, CEO & Director | 61 |
| Mr. Gary Merrill | Chief Financial Officer | 50 |
| Ms. Danielle Abrahamsen | Chief Accounting Officer | 34 |
| Mr. William Geoffrey Haydon | President of Customer & Field Operations | 60 |
| Mr. Pranay Ahlawat | Chief Technology & AI Officer | - |
Audit Risk
1
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
2
Shareholder Rights Risk
3
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-05-11
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-29
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-24
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CVLT, sourced from Markets Gazette.