Vistra Corp (VST)
OvervaluedFundamental
60
Price
$138.35
Market Cap
$46.32B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
No editorial profile for this company yet
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
No editorial profile for this company yet
No competitor list for this company yet.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$18.98B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$2.22B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$1.32B
Total Equity
$5.10B
Total Liabilities
$36.44B
Current Ratio
0.97
Interest Coverage
3.15
Debt/EBITDA
5.03
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$104.19
Current Price
$138.35
Margin of Safety
-32.8%
Fair Value Range
$67.72 - $140.65
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
23.33
ROE
18.5%
P/B Ratio
8.47
P/FCF
20.59
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
8.8%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
8.8%
WACC
9.9%
ROIC − WACC
-1.1 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (15)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 25.35%
- ROIC 8.8%
- P/FCF 20.59
- Operating Margin 18.8%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 41.5%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 10.1%
- Analyst Consensus 92% Buy
- PEG Ratio 1.31
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.31
Failed (10)
- P/B Ratio 8.47
- Debt/Equity ratio
- CapEx intensity
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings Surprise avg -9.4%
- Share Dilution 14.0%
- Net Margin Trend 11.7% vs 14.9%
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Unavailable (2)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. James A. Burke CPA | President, CEO & Director | 57 |
| Mr. Kristopher E. Moldovan | Executive VP & CFO | 53 |
| Ms. Stephanie Zapata Moore | Executive VP, General Counsel & Chief Compliance Officer | 52 |
| Ms. Stacey H. Dore J.D. | Chief Strategy and Sustainability Officer & Executive VP of Public Affairs | 52 |
| Mr. Scott A. Hudson | Executive VP & President of Retail | 61 |
| Ms. Margaret M. Montemayor | Senior VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller | 47 |
| Mr. Tom Farrah | Senior VP & CIO | - |
| Mr. Eric Micek C.F.A. | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Amanda DonCarlos | Senior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | - |
| Ms. Sano Blocker | Senior Vice President of Government Affairs | - |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
2
Shareholder Rights Risk
5
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-27
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-10
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-24
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for VST, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 6/18/2026NEUTRALCramer Gives Vistra His Blessing, Backs Stryker, Steers Clear Of AI-Exposed FICO
Jim Cramer has given his endorsement to Vistra Corp., signaling a positive outlook for the energy company. However, Cramer expressed significant caution regarding Fair Isaac Corp. (FICO), citing concerns over its exposure to Artificial Intelligence risks. He explicitly stated his intention to avoid FICO due to these perceived vulnerabilities. While Vistra receives a bullish call, the commentary on FICO suggests potential headwinds for companies heavily reliant on AI integration, impacting investor sentiment for those specific names.
- 6/9/2026NEUTRALHere's How Much $100 Invested In Vistra 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today
An investment of $100 in Vistra Energy Corp. (VST) five years ago would have grown to approximately $780 by June 2026. This represents a substantial return on investment, significantly outperforming broader market indices over the same period. The company's performance is attributed to its strategic operations in the energy sector, including power generation and retail electricity services. Investors considering Vistra should analyze its current valuation, future growth prospects, and the competitive landscape within the evolving energy market.
- 4/14/2026POSITIVE$1000 Invested In Vistra 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today
An investment of $1000 in Vistra Energy Corp. five years ago would have yielded a significant return, illustrating the company's strong performance and growth trajectory during that period. While specific figures are not provided in the title, the implication of substantial value appreciation suggests robust operational execution, strategic acquisitions, or favorable market conditions benefiting the energy sector. Investors considering Vistra should analyze its recent financial reports and future outlook to understand the drivers behind this historical performance and its potential for continued success.
- 3/6/2026POSITIVEIf You Invested $100 In Vistra Stock 5 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today
An investment of $100 in Vistra Corp. (VST) five years ago would have yielded a significant return, demonstrating strong performance for shareholders. While specific figures are not detailed in the provided snippet, the implication of a substantial increase suggests Vistra has outperformed market expectations during this period. This historical performance could indicate robust operational efficiency, strategic growth initiatives, or favorable market conditions benefiting the company's sector. Investors considering Vistra should note this historical trend as a potential indicator of future value creation, though past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
- 2/26/2026NEUTRALVistra (VST) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Vistra Corp. has announced the release of its Q4 2025 earnings call transcript. While this is a routine event for publicly traded companies, the absence of specific content details from the call prevents in-depth analysis. Investors typically look to these documents to assess the company's financial performance, future outlook, and management commentary on strategies and challenges. Without this information, the market awaits concrete data to form judgments on the stock's trajectory. The transcript serves as a benchmark for transparency, but its market impact hinges on the disclosed figures and statements.
- 2/25/2026NEUTRALPreview: Vistra's Earnings
The financial community is gearing up for the upcoming release of Vistra Corp.'s quarterly earnings, a key event scheduled for February 25, 2026. Investors will closely scrutinize the data to assess the company's financial health and its future trajectory within the energy sector. Focus will not only be on revenue and earnings per share but also on the guidance provided by management regarding the outlook for the coming quarters and the impact of market dynamics on operations. Past performance and analyst expectations will serve as benchmarks for interpreting the results, with any significant deviation potentially triggering price movements. This announcement represents a crucial moment for those holding or considering investing in Vistra, offering fundamental insights for portfolio decisions.
- 2/24/2026POSITIVEShould You Buy Vistra Stock While It's Below $200 -- Or Wait for a Better Yield?
Vistra Corp is positioning itself as an attractive option for income-seeking investors. As a leading energy producer, the company not only has a solid market position but also stands out for its rapidly growing dividend policy, a strong signal of financial health and commitment to shareholders. The article raises a strategic point for investors: whether to take advantage of the current price, seen as a potential psychological threshold, to enter the stock, or to wait for an even higher dividend yield. This analysis suggests that Vistra's profile is particularly well-suited for income-oriented portfolios, combining the stability of the energy sector with the prospect of increasing cash flows for shareholders. The growing dividend is a key factor that could attract new capital and support the stock's valuation in the medium to long term.
via Markets Gazette