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United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)

Undervalued
IndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsUnited States

Fundamental

67

Price

$93.44

Market Cap

$80.19B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

United Parcel Service, Inc., a package delivery and logistics provider, offers transportation and delivery services. It operates through two segments, U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight through air and ground services. The International Package segment provides small package operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Canada and Latin America, and Asia. The company offers a range of guaranteed day- and time-definite international transportation services; day-definite services; cross-border ground package delivery; contract-only, e-commerce solutions for non-urgent, and cross-border shipments; and international service for urgent and palletized shipments. It also provides international air and ocean freight forwarding, contract logistics, customs brokerage and insurance, mail services, healthcare logistics, distribution, and post-sales services. United Parcel Service, Inc. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

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Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

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No competitor list for this company yet.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$89.93B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$4.57B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$4.76B

Total Equity

$16.23B

Total Liabilities

$56.84B

Current Ratio

1.18

Interest Coverage

6.01

Debt/EBITDA

2.64

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$258.02

Current Price

$93.44

Margin of Safety

+63.8%

Fair Value Range

$167.71 - $348.33

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$115.81
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$699.00
Earnings multiple (P/E):$65.85
Graham growth formula:$276.96
Earnings power value (EPV):$61.50
Justified P/B:$59.71
Dividend discount (Gordon):$70.96
P/FFO, funds from operations:$192.11
Mid-cycle earnings:$286.00
Revenue multiple:$300.53
Analyst Consensus:Buy (18B / 13H / 4S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+4.86%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

17.37

ROE

34.3%

P/B Ratio

4.43

P/FCF

12.22

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

9.2%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

9.2%

WACC

8.0%

ROIC − WACC

+1.2 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 17.50%
  • ROIC 9.2%
  • P/FCF 12.22
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 7.3%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 29.1%
  • Analyst Consensus 51% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 12.1%
  • PEG Ratio 0.52
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.94
  • Share Dilution -0.8%
  • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

Failed (8)

  • Price CAGR -1.33%
  • P/B Ratio 4.43
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 0.9%
  • Net Margin Trend 5.1% vs 6.3%

Unavailable (2)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-Score

5/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.94

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-0.8%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Ms. Carol B. TomeCEO & Director68
Mr. Brian DykesChief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President46
Mr. Nando CesaroneExecutive VP & Chief Global Operations Officer53
Mr. Bala SubramanianEVP and Chief Digital & Technology Officer54
Ms. Kathleen M. GutmannStrategic Advisor56
PJ GuidoInvestor Relations Officer-
Mr. Norman M. Brothers Jr.Executive VP, Chief Legal, Compliance Officer & Corporate Secretary57
Mr. Darrell L. FordExecutive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer60
Mr. Ralph OzoudeManaging Director of Nigerian Operations & Special Projects Manager for West Africa-
Mr. Harrison ParkManaging Director of UPS Korea-

Audit Risk

6

Board Risk

8

Compensation Risk

8

Shareholder Rights Risk

10

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-17

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-05

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-08-31

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for UPS, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 8/24/2026POSITIVE
    UPS investe oltre 2 miliardi di dollari per servizi più rapidi e supply chain globali più resilienti

    UPS announced an investment exceeding $2 billion aimed at enhancing its International, Healthcare, and Supply Chain Solutions divisions. This strategic capital allocation targets faster service delivery and improved global supply chain resilience. The investment underscores UPS's commitment to modernizing its infrastructure and expanding its premium logistics capabilities. For investors, this move signals a proactive approach to capturing growth in global trade and specialized logistics sectors, potentially leading to increased market share and operational efficiencies.

  • 7/28/2026POSITIVE
    UPS CEO on Return to Growth, Global Economic Outlook

    UPS CEO Carol Tomé expressed optimism for the company's future, driven by a strategic shift away from heavy reliance on Amazon deliveries and significant investments in digital platforms and infrastructure. This restructuring aims to unlock new growth avenues and improve operational efficiency. Investors will be watching for the tangible results of these upgrades and the successful diversification of revenue streams, which could lead to enhanced profitability and a stronger market position.

  • 7/28/2026POSITIVE
    UPS turns the page as job cuts and Amazon ‘glide down’ are completed

    United Parcel Service (UPS) shares surged following the company's announcement of completed job cuts and the conclusion of its 'glide down' phase with Amazon. The logistics giant reported an earnings beat, exceeding analyst expectations, and subsequently raised its full-year outlook. This positive financial performance, coupled with the strategic completion of cost-saving measures and a normalized relationship with a key client, signals a robust recovery and improved operational efficiency. Investors are likely to view these developments favorably, anticipating stronger future profitability and a more stable growth trajectory for UPS.

  • 6/23/2026POSITIVE
    UPS is shelling out nearly $50 million on temperature-controlled facilities to meet the booming demand for GLP-1 deliveries

    United Parcel Service (UPS) is investing approximately $50 million to expand its temperature-controlled logistics capabilities, specifically targeting the burgeoning demand for GLP-1 medications. This strategic move underscores the company's focus on the healthcare sector, which is perceived as resilient against economic downturns. The investment aims to enhance UPS's capacity to handle sensitive pharmaceutical shipments, positioning it to capture a larger share of the growing market for specialized medical logistics. Investors may view this as a positive development, signaling UPS's commitment to high-growth, high-margin segments within its business.

  • 4/29/2026POSITIVE
    FedEx and UPS are pledging to give their tariff refunds back to consumers, and the sum will likely top $5 billion

    UPS CEO Carol Tome announced the company's intention to return tariff refunds to customers, a move expected to exceed $5 billion. This commitment signals a customer-centric strategy, potentially enhancing brand loyalty and market share. For investors, this proactive approach to cost savings suggests strong operational management and a focus on long-term customer relationships, which could translate into sustained revenue growth and a competitive advantage in the logistics sector.

  • 4/28/2026NEUTRAL
    UPS Outlook Unchanged as Sales, Profit Top Expectations

    United Parcel Service Inc. reported first-quarter results that surpassed analyst expectations for both sales and profit. Despite these strong operational figures, the company maintained its full-year financial outlook unchanged. This suggests that while current performance is robust, management foresees no significant shifts in the broader economic landscape or company-specific factors that would necessitate revising their annual guidance. Investors will monitor future communications for any signs of changing trends.

  • 4/28/2026NEGATIVE
    UPS leaves full-year outlook intact even as quarterly earnings top target, and stock falls

    United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) shares declined despite reporting quarterly earnings that surpassed analyst expectations. The company maintained its full-year financial outlook, signaling no change in its forward-looking guidance. While the earnings beat suggests operational efficiency in the recent quarter, the market's reaction indicates investor concern over the lack of an upward revision to the annual forecast. This suggests that the current performance might not be enough to drive significant future growth or that underlying challenges persist, leading to a cautious investor sentiment.

  • 3/14/2026NEGATIVE
    5 Things Every UPS Investor Needs to Know

    United Parcel Service (UPS) investors are facing uncertainty regarding the company's 2026 outlook, primarily due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This geopolitical event introduces complex challenges that could impact global logistics and supply chains, potentially affecting UPS's operational efficiency and profitability. Investors will be closely monitoring how the company navigates these external pressures and whether its strategic initiatives can mitigate any adverse effects on its financial performance and future growth projections.

  • 3/14/2026NEUTRAL
    FedEx Just Took UPS's Spot as the Biggest U.S. Parcel Firm. Which Stock is a Smarter Buy in 2026?

    FedEx has surpassed UPS to become the largest U.S. parcel delivery company, according to recent market share data. However, UPS is strategically shifting its focus from sheer volume to profitability. The company is prioritizing higher-margin services and optimizing its network efficiency, aiming to enhance its financial performance rather than solely compete on size. Investors are now evaluating whether UPS's new strategy will lead to sustainable long-term value creation, despite the change in its market leadership position.

via Markets Gazette