NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Fair ValueFundamental
73
Price
$228.38
Market Cap
$5.42T
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
NVIDIA designs the processors that do the heavy arithmetic behind artificial intelligence, computer graphics and scientific computing. It does not own factories: it designs the chips and the software that runs on them, and has them manufactured by outside foundries. What began as a company selling graphics cards to gamers now sells complete systems — chips, networking and software — to the operators of the world's largest data centres, who use them to train and run AI models.
How it makes money
Revenue comes from selling hardware, not from subscriptions: NVIDIA books a sale when a customer takes delivery of a chip, a board or a complete server system. Because it designs rather than manufactures, its costs are largely research and foundry capacity, so each additional unit sold at a high price carries a very large margin. Its pricing power rests on being, for now, the only practical supplier of the performance the largest AI workloads require.
Revenue by segment
Chips, networking and systems sold to cloud providers and large enterprises to train and run AI models. This is the business today.
GeForce graphics cards for personal computers and chips for game consoles — the original business, now a small share of the whole.
Workstation graphics for engineers, architects and film studios, plus tools for building simulated environments.
Computing platforms sold to carmakers for assisted and autonomous driving. Small today, with long lead times before revenue appears.
Residual sales to equipment manufacturers that do not belong to the other four lines.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · WideFor nearly twenty years, AI software has been written against CUDA, NVIDIA's programming layer. A competitor can match the silicon and still lose, because moving a research team's accumulated code and tooling to another platform costs months of work. The chips are replaceable; the habits built on top of them are the harder thing to dislodge.
What drives demand
CyclicalDemand follows the investment budgets of a handful of very large technology companies. Those budgets are decided in multi-year cycles and can be cut quickly: the industry has repeatedly gone from shortage to glut within a few quarters. Revenue here is the consequence of someone else's capital spending decision, not of steady end-user consumption.
Key risks
- Revenue concentrated in few buyers — The company states that its revenue is concentrated among a limited number of direct and indirect customers, and that the trend may continue. Losing one of them, or a pause in their spending, is not a marginal event.
- Dependence on outside foundries — NVIDIA owns no fabrication plants and relies on third parties, concentrated in Taiwan, for manufacturing and advanced packaging. Capacity shortfalls or disruption at a supplier translate directly into lost sales.
- Export controls and geopolitics — Government restrictions on selling advanced chips to certain countries have already removed markets from the company, and the rules can change without warning and without compensation.
- Customers building their own chips — The same large customers that buy the most are designing internal alternatives. A buyer that becomes a competitor reduces demand and bargaining power at the same time.
- Demand may not match capacity commitments — The company commits to supply and inventory well before orders are firm. If demand slows after those commitments, it carries the cost of capacity it can no longer sell.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 36% of revenue
In fiscal 2026 one direct customer alone accounted for 22% of revenue and a second for 14%. A single buyer's change of plan therefore moves the whole company's results.
The case for
Buyers argue that the build-out of AI computing has years left to run, that CUDA keeps customers in place while rivals catch up on hardware, and that margins of this size on revenue growing 65% a year are evidence of pricing power rather than of a passing shortage.
The case against
Sellers fear that a handful of customers are funding almost all of this growth from capital budgets they can cut in a single quarter, that their in-house chip programmes erode both volume and price, and that today's margins assume a scarcity which additional foundry capacity is designed to end.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on August 22, 2026 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
AMD is the only other merchant supplier selling both data-center AI accelerators (Instinct MI series) and discrete gaming graphics cards (Radeon) to the same cloud operators, PC makers and gamers NVIDIA sells to.
Broadcom designs the custom AI accelerators (XPUs) and the Ethernet switching silicon that the largest cloud companies buy instead of NVIDIA GPUs and NVIDIA networking gear for their AI data centers.
Google's TPU line is sold as an alternative to NVIDIA GPUs for training and running AI models, both rented through Google Cloud and, increasingly, placed in customers' own data centres.
Intel competes for the same server and PC sockets with its data-center CPUs, integrated and discrete graphics, and its AI accelerator line, and is named by NVIDIA among its accelerated-computing competitors.
AWS designs its own Trainium and Inferentia chips and rents them to the same AI developers who would otherwise rent NVIDIA GPU capacity in the cloud.
Huawei's Ascend accelerators are the main alternative for Chinese data-centre customers that NVIDIA can no longer serve because of United States export restrictions.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$302.97B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/26/2026)
Net Income
$192.88B
Trailing 12 months (through 7/26/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$96.68B
Total Equity
$157.29B
Total Liabilities
$49.51B
Current Ratio
4.59
Interest Coverage
426.74
Debt/EBITDA
0.29
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$237.04
Current Price
$228.38
Margin of Safety
+3.7%
Fair Value Range
$154.08 - $320.01
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
28.87
ROE
76.3%
P/B Ratio
24.04
P/FCF
43.34
Gross Margin
74.7%
ROIC
56.3%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC outlierROIC
56.3%
WACC
16.6%
ROIC − WACC
+39.7 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (21)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 7.60%
- Price CAGR 55.85%
- ROIC 56.3%
- Gross Margin 74.7%
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 65.2%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 110.1%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 66.9%
- Analyst Consensus 94% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 3.4%
- PEG Ratio 0.29
- Share Dilution -1.2%
- Net Margin Trend 63.7% vs 52.4%
Failed (6)
- P/FCF 43.34
- P/B Ratio 24.04
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 0.70
- Piotroski F-Score 4/9
Unavailable (1)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
Moderate: some gap between profits and cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Jen-Hsun Huang | Co-Founder, CEO & Director | 62 |
| Ms. Colette M. Kress | Executive VP & CFO | 58 |
| Ms. Debora Shoquist | Executive Vice President of Operations | 70 |
| Mr. Timothy S. Teter J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 58 |
| Mr. Chris A. Malachowsky | Co-Founder | - |
| Mr. Scott C. Gawel | Chief Accounting Officer | 54 |
| Prof. William J. Dally Ph.D. | Chief Scientist & Senior VP of Research | 64 |
| Mr. Toshiya Hari | Vice President of Investor Relations & Strategic Finance | - |
| Ms. Mylene Mangalindan | Vice President of Corporate Communications | - |
| Ms. Alison Berkley Wagonfeld | Chief Marketing Officer | 54 |
Audit Risk
5
Board Risk
10
Compensation Risk
4
Shareholder Rights Risk
6
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-25
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-26
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-03
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for NVDA, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 19h agoPOSITIVEPerché il titolo Nvidia è in rialzo mercoledì?
Nvidia shares surged over 1.6% on Wednesday, buoyed by a softer-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report. The index rose 3.4% year-over-year in August, falling short of the 3.7% consensus forecast. This inflation data has fueled optimism that the Federal Reserve might hold off on further interest rate hikes, potentially as early as its October meeting. Traders are now pricing in approximately 35% probability of an October rate increase, down from previous expectations. The news benefits growth-oriented stocks like Nvidia, suggesting a less restrictive monetary environment ahead.
- 1d agoNEUTRALDeepSeek collabora con Huawei su tool per chip per ridurre la dipendenza da Nvidia
Chinese AI firm DeepSeek is partnering with Huawei to develop programming tools for Huawei's Ascend chips. This collaboration aims to reduce Chinese tech companies' reliance on Nvidia's AI hardware. DeepSeek will offer free access to underlying programming infrastructure for the Ascend platform, including tools for chip computation and communication. The key release is TileLang, a programming language designed to simplify AI chip development. While this move signifies a strategic effort by Chinese firms to build domestic capabilities and diversify away from Nvidia, the immediate market impact on Nvidia remains neutral as the development is focused on a competitor's ecosystem and not a direct challenge to Nvidia's current market share.
- 2d agoPOSITIVENvidia’s historic buyback announcement underscores a sharp divide in Big Tech
Nvidia announced a significant expansion of its share buyback program, increasing it by an additional $235 billion. This move contrasts with peers like Alphabet and Meta, which are pausing their buybacks to reinvest capital into artificial intelligence projects. The substantial buyback signals Nvidia's strong confidence in its future cash flows and valuation, potentially boosting shareholder returns and supporting its stock price. Investors will monitor how this aggressive capital return strategy impacts Nvidia's competitive position and profitability in the evolving AI landscape.
- 2d agoNEUTRALAzioni Nvidia: segnali contrastanti tra venti favorevoli e contrari
Nvidia's stock encountered a slight hurdle below its all-time high, trading at $229, down from its year-to-date peak of $236. Despite widespread optimism surrounding AI spending, which Bain projects to reach $6 trillion and PwC forecasts to hit $32 trillion by 2032, the stock's momentum has stalled. The company's $150 billion buyback plan and attractive valuation are noted, but the immediate price action suggests a consolidation phase rather than a clear directional move. Investors are weighing the long-term AI growth potential against current market dynamics.
- 2d agoPOSITIVENvidia Authorizes Record US$150 Billion Share Buyback
NVIDIA has authorized a staggering US$150 billion increase to its share repurchase program, marking the largest buyback authorization in corporate history and bringing its total remaining capacity to US$235 billion through fiscal 2028. This move significantly surpasses Apple's previous record and underscores NVIDIA's immense cash generation capabilities, driven by the AI and accelerated computing platform shift. The company projects 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, fueled by sustained demand for its processors. The announcement, coupled with the launch of the Open Agent Safety Platform, reinforces investor confidence in NVIDIA's long-term growth prospects and its commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
- 3d agoPOSITIVENvidia Boosts Share Buyback Authorization by $150 Billion
Nvidia Corporation has significantly expanded its share buyback program, authorizing an additional $150 billion, bringing the total remaining authorization to $235 billion. This substantial capital return plan is set to be completed by fiscal year 2028. The move signals strong confidence from Nvidia's management in the company's future cash flow generation and its stock valuation. For investors, this aggressive buyback strategy can reduce the number of outstanding shares, potentially increasing earnings per share and providing a floor for the stock price, reinforcing its position as a key player in the AI boom.
- 3d agoPOSITIVENvidia is right: Its stock is a bargain by this measure
Nvidia's stock valuation has improved, becoming more attractive to investors despite its continued strong growth trajectory. This suggests that the market may be undervaluing the company's future earnings potential relative to its current share price. Analysts are noting that the price-to-earnings ratio, a key metric for valuation, has decreased even as Nvidia consistently delivers robust financial performance. This divergence presents a potential buying opportunity for those who believe in the company's long-term prospects and its dominance in the AI chip market.
via Markets Gazette