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First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)

Undervalued
TechnologySolarUnited States

Fundamental

88

Price

$175.16

Market Cap

$18.50B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

First Solar designs, manufactures and sells solar modules built with cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film technology rather than the crystalline silicon used by most of the industry, avoiding the polysilicon supply chain that runs largely through China. Its customers are utility-scale developers, independent power producers and utilities that build large solar farms, mostly in the United States. It operates as a single business segment: modules.

How it makes money

Revenue comes from selling physical solar modules under multi-year supply agreements booked well in advance of delivery, which gives First Solar an unusually large order backlog relative to current sales. Manufacturing entirely in the United States also qualifies the company for federal production tax credits tied to domestic content, which lower its effective cost and help it compete on price against lower-cost imported panels.

Competitive moat

Cost advantage · Narrow

Domestic manufacturing plus federal production tax credits give First Solar a cost position against tariff-exposed imported panels that competitors without US factories cannot match, and its CdTe technology sidesteps the polysilicon supply chain entirely. The advantage rests heavily on policy: it would narrow quickly if trade protection or the tax credit regime changed.

What drives demand

Cyclical

Demand comes from large capital projects — utility-scale solar farms — whose financing depends on interest rates, government incentives and utilities' long-term capacity planning, all of which can shift with policy changes or credit conditions. Bookings can also swing when customers renegotiate or cancel contracts, which shows up in First Solar's results as termination payments rather than steady module sales.

Key risks

  • Dependence on policy incentives — The company's cost advantage rests partly on US production tax credits and tariffs on imported panels; a change in either policy area would remove some of the pricing edge it currently has domestically.
  • Concentrated customer base and contract cancellations — A small number of large developers and utilities account for a meaningful share of sales, and contract terminations by customers have already been a source of revenue in recent years rather than a risk avoided.
  • Concentrated supply chain for key materials — Cadmium telluride, substrate glass and specialised manufacturing equipment are sourced from a limited number of suppliers, so a shortage or disruption at one of them can constrain production directly.
  • Capacity built ahead of confirmed demand — The company commits to manufacturing capacity and long lead-time investments before all corresponding demand is firm; if bookings fail to materialise as planned, it carries the cost of underused capacity.

Customer concentration

Top customers account for 21% of revenue

In 2025, Silicon Ranch Corporation and NextEra Energy each accounted for roughly 10% or more of net sales, together about a fifth of the total. Losing either relationship would leave a gap not easily filled given how few buyers exist for utility-scale module volumes.

The case for

Buyers argue that being the largest US-based solar manufacturer positions First Solar to keep capturing policy support and tariff protection that Asian-made panels cannot access, backed by a large multi-year order book that gives unusual revenue visibility for the industry.

The case against

Sellers fear that a business this dependent on tax credits and trade protection is one policy reversal away from losing its price advantage, and that concentrated large customers who have already shown they will cancel contracts could do so again.

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Hanwha Solutions Corporation — Qcells (한화솔루션 큐셀부문)Not tracked

Qcells is the other large solar module maker building an integrated US supply chain, selling domestic-content panels to the same American utility-scale and commercial buyers First Solar serves.

JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (晶科能源控股有限公司)JKS

One of the largest crystalline-silicon module makers in the world, with a Florida plant, it bids for the same utility-scale projects that First Solar's thin-film modules target.

Canadian Solar Inc.CSIQ

A global crystalline-silicon module supplier that sells into the same North American utility-scale pipeline and, like First Solar, also develops and sells solar projects and storage.

LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (隆基绿能科技股份有限公司)Not tracked

The world's biggest crystalline-silicon module producer and, through the Illuminate USA joint venture in Ohio, a direct supplier to the US utility-scale market First Solar depends on.

Trina Solar Co., Ltd. (天合光能股份有限公司)Not tracked

A top-tier crystalline-silicon manufacturer competing for the same large ground-mounted installations, where module price per watt and delivery schedule decide the order.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$5.38B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$1.75B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$1.19B

Total Equity

$9.54B

Total Liabilities

$3.78B

Current Ratio

2.52

Interest Coverage

46.88

Debt/EBITDA

0.09

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$298.98

Current Price

$175.16

Margin of Safety

+41.4%

Fair Value Range

$194.34 - $403.62

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$272.10
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$232.19
Earnings multiple (P/E):$149.79
Graham growth formula:$835.01
Earnings power value (EPV):$93.85
Justified P/B:$118.51
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:$306.31
Mid-cycle earnings:$152.44
Revenue multiple:$254.81
Analyst Consensus:Buy (34B / 11H / 3S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+35.52%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

10.80

ROE

16.0%

P/B Ratio

1.82

P/FCF

12.55

Gross Margin

44.0%

ROIC

12.7%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

12.7%

WACC

14.1%

ROIC − WACC

-1.5 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (25)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 11.42%
  • Price CAGR 19.59%
  • ROIC 12.7%
  • Gross Margin 44.0%
  • P/FCF 12.55
  • P/B Ratio 1.82
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 33.6%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • ROE 18.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 14.0%
  • Analyst Consensus 71% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 13.3%
  • PEG Ratio 0.37
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.23
  • Share Dilution 0.1%
  • Net Margin Trend 32.5% vs 29.0%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

Failed (2)

  • CapEx intensity
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)

Unavailable (1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-Score

8/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.23

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

0.1%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Mark R. WidmarCEO & Director59
Mr. Alexander R. BradleyChief Financial Officer44
Mr. Jason E. DymbortGeneral Counsel & Secretary47
Mr. Georges J. AntounChief Commercial Officer62
Mr. Kuntal Kumar VermaChief Manufacturing Officer52
Mr. Nathan B. TheurerVP, Global Controller & Chief Accounting Officer44
Mr. Markus GloecklerChief Technology Officer51
Mr. Byron Michael JeffersVP, Treasurer & Head of Investor Relations41
Ms. Caroline StockdaleChief People & Communications Officer62
Mr. Michael KoralewskiChief Supply Chain Officer53

Audit Risk

5

Board Risk

9

Compensation Risk

8

Shareholder Rights Risk

7

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-24

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-30

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-07-30

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for FSLR, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 7d agoNEUTRAL
    Le azioni First Solar hanno già toccato un minimo?

    First Solar, a leading utility-scale solar module manufacturer, is at a critical juncture following a significant year-to-date decline. The stock's continued drop has fueled investor debate regarding the impact of prolonged higher interest rates and ongoing political and tax credit uncertainties. GLJ Research recently issued an aggressive price target reduction to $250. With shares trading substantially below historical valuation multiples, market participants are actively questioning whether the clean energy name has found a bottom. The current price action suggests a period of consolidation and uncertainty, with potential for a rebound if market conditions improve or specific company catalysts emerge.

  • 6/9/2026POSITIVE
    If You Invested $1000 In First Solar Stock 10 Years Ago, You Would Have This Much Today

    An investment of $1,000 in First Solar Inc. (FSLR) stock a decade ago would have yielded a substantial return, illustrating the company's significant growth trajectory. While specific figures are not provided in this snippet, the headline implies a strong performance, likely driven by increased demand for solar energy solutions and the company's technological advancements. Investors considering FSLR should analyze its recent performance, competitive landscape, and the broader renewable energy sector trends to assess future potential.

  • 3/2/2026NEGATIVE
    First Solar's $2 Billion Problem

    First Solar Inc. is facing increasing financial vulnerability, highlighted by its heavy reliance on government subsidies. With an estimated $2 billion problem, the company's profits in the solar energy sector are significantly influenced by these external contributions. This dependency raises concerns among investors regarding the long-term sustainability of First Solar's business model. While subsidies can provide an immediate boost, their potential reduction or elimination could drastically impact the company's profitability and financial stability, making it susceptible to shifts in government policies and market conditions. Analysts suggest caution, given the inherent fragility of a company whose margins are so closely tied to external factors.

  • 2/25/2026NEGATIVE
    Why First Solar Stock Slumped Today

    First Solar's stock experienced a significant slump today, reflecting market concerns regarding the dynamic between the company's expanding production capacity and actual demand. Despite First Solar's efforts to increase its capacity, a key growth driver in the solar energy sector, investors appear skeptical about the company's ability to translate this expansion into a proportional increase in demand. This imbalance suggests that supply might outpace demand in the short term, putting pressure on prices and margins. The negative market reaction underscores the need for First Solar to demonstrate a clear strategy to stimulate demand and ensure that its capacity investments are justified by a sustained order flow, otherwise the stock could continue to suffer.

  • 2/24/2026NEUTRAL
    First Solar (FSLR) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript

    The market is keenly awaiting the details of First Solar Inc.'s financial performance, a leader in thin-film solar modules. Although the release of the Q4 2025 earnings transcript has been announced, key information regarding specific financial results, future projections, or management commentary is not yet available. Investors are in a holding pattern, unable to assess the impact of these results on FSLR's stock valuation. Without concrete data on revenues, earnings per share, or guidance, it is impossible to form a directional judgment. The financial community will closely monitor the full publication to understand the company's trajectory within the dynamic solar energy market.

  • 2/24/2026NEGATIVE
    First Solar Stock Craters As Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates

    First Solar Inc. experienced a significant drop in its stock price following the release of its fourth-quarter earnings report, which fell short of analyst estimates. The discrepancy between reported earnings and market expectations triggered an immediate negative reaction among investors, who are concerned about the company's future prospects in the solar energy sector. This event underscores the critical importance of quarterly performance in determining market confidence and stock valuation. Investors will closely monitor First Solar's next steps to understand how the company plans to address challenges and regain confidence after this setback.

via Markets Gazette