Back to rankings

Fastenal Company (FAST)

Overvalued
IndustrialsIndustrial DistributionUnited States

Fundamental

68

Price

$49.53

Market Cap

$58.21B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Fastenal distributes the small industrial and construction supplies that keep a factory or job site running — fasteners, safety equipment, tools, and janitorial and cutting supplies — sourced from thousands of manufacturers and resold through a network of local branches and onsite vending machines placed inside customer facilities. It does not manufacture what it sells; its business is logistics and availability: getting a specific bolt or glove to a customer's shop floor faster and more reliably than the customer could stock it themselves.

How it makes money

Revenue comes from selling physical products at a markup over what Fastenal pays its suppliers, recognized when goods are delivered or, increasingly, dispensed from an onsite vending machine. The company splits customers into contract accounts — larger, multi-site or government customers on negotiated pricing — and non-contract accounts, which are smaller and buy less often; contract customers generate steadier, more predictable volume because Fastenal embeds vending machines and inventory-management tools directly inside their facilities.

Revenue by segment

Other Products47.3%

Tools, janitorial supplies, cutting tools, electrical and welding supplies and other categories grouped outside the two largest lines.

Fasteners30.5%

Bolts, screws, nuts and other threaded fasteners — Fastenal's original product line and still its largest single category.

Safety Supplies22.2%

Gloves, eyewear, protective clothing and other workplace safety products, the fastest-growing major category in recent years.

Competitive moat

Scale · Narrow

Fastenal's advantage is density: tens of thousands of vending machines and onsite lockers installed directly inside customer facilities create a habit of reordering through Fastenal rather than shopping around, and the logistics network needed to restock them profitably took decades to build. Grainger and MSC Industrial run comparable networks, though, so the advantage is a matter of degree rather than a barrier competitors cannot cross.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Demand follows how much factories are producing and how much construction is underway, both of which slow when manufacturers cut shifts or builders pause projects in a weaker economy. The products themselves are consumables that get used up regardless — a factory still needs bolts and gloves to keep running — which cushions the swings compared to a distributor of big-ticket equipment, but does not remove them.

Key risks

  • Exposure to manufacturing and construction cycles — A large share of sales goes to manufacturing and non-residential construction customers, so a slowdown in factory output or building activity reduces order volume across the branch and vending network.
  • Competition from larger and online distributors — Grainger, MSC Industrial and online industrial marketplaces compete for the same contract customers, and a rival's lower price or faster delivery can shift volume away from Fastenal's branches.
  • Dependence on the vending and onsite model — Much of recent growth comes from installing vending machines and onsite inventory inside customer facilities; if that model saturates or a large customer removes the equipment, growth slows more than a simple branch-network model would.
  • Tariffs and import cost exposure — A meaningful share of the products Fastenal resells is imported, so tariff changes can raise costs faster than the company can pass them through to contract customers on negotiated pricing.

The case for

Buyers argue that the vending and onsite inventory network keeps deepening Fastenal's presence inside customer facilities, that safety supplies are growing faster than the legacy fastener business and diversifying revenue, and that the branch density built over decades is hard for a newer entrant to replicate.

The case against

Sellers fear that a manufacturing slowdown hits order volume directly, that Grainger and online industrial distributors can match Fastenal's service with deep enough pockets, and that a business built on thin per-item margins leaves little room to absorb tariff or freight cost increases.

Segment figures from fiscal year 2025Sources: Fastenal Co — Form 10-K, esercizio 2025Fastenal Co SEC 10-K Report

Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 30.3Score: 81Market cap: $12.38B

Sells bearings, power transmission, fluid power and general MRO consumables to the same North American plant-maintenance buyers, overlapping with Fastenal's non-fastener product lines.

W.W. Grainger, Inc.GWW

The largest North American broad-line distributor of maintenance, repair and operating supplies, selling the same safety, tooling and consumable products to the same manufacturing and construction accounts Fastenal serves through national supply agreements.

MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.MSM

Competes for the same metalworking and factory-maintenance spend at North American manufacturers, including the on-site vending and vendor-managed inventory programs that are Fastenal's core selling model.

Würth Group (Adolf Würth GmbH & Co. KG)Not tracked

The world's largest fastener and C-parts distributor, selling screws, chemicals and consumables to industrial, automotive and construction customers through the same branch-plus-managed-inventory model, and competing directly with Fastenal in North America.

McMaster-Carr Supply CompanyNot tracked

A privately held catalogue and e-commerce distributor of fasteners, tools and MRO hardware that wins the same unplanned and small-order industrial purchases Fastenal handles from its branches.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$8.75B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$1.35B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$1.05B

Total Equity

$3.94B

Total Liabilities

$1.11B

Current Ratio

4.18

Interest Coverage

412.81

Debt/EBITDA

0.24

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseOvervalued

Fair Value

$37.18

Current Price

$49.53

Margin of Safety

-33.2%

Fair Value Range

$25.75 - $48.61

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$48.84
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$27.35
Earnings multiple (P/E):$42.88
Graham growth formula:$25.14
Earnings power value (EPV):$14.99
Justified P/B:$24.94
Dividend discount (Gordon):$22.01
P/FFO, funds from operations:$20.05
Mid-cycle earnings:$33.44
Revenue multiple:$21.63
Analyst Consensus:Hold (11B / 10H / 5S)
Last Earnings Surprise:-1.29%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

42.33

ROE

31.9%

P/B Ratio

13.97

P/FCF

49.17

Gross Margin

44.7%

ROIC

31.8%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

31.8%

WACC

8.1%

ROIC − WACC

+23.7 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (19)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 15.82%
  • ROIC 31.8%
  • Gross Margin 44.7%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Operating Margin 20.3%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • ROE 34.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 7.8%
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.03
  • Share Dilution 0.3%
  • Net Margin Trend 15.5% vs 15.3%
  • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

Failed (8)

  • EPS CAGR 3.59%
  • P/FCF 49.17
  • P/B Ratio 13.97
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Analyst Consensus 42% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg -2.1%
  • PEG Ratio 5.45

Unavailable (1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-Score

8/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.03

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

0.3%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Jeffery Michael WattsPresident, CEO & Director53
Mr. Max H. TunnicliffSenior EVP & CFO46
Ms. Sheryl Ann LisowskiExecutive VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Treasurer58
Mr. Daniel L. FlornessStrategic Advisor to the CEO62
Mr. John Lewis SoderbergSenior Executive Vice President of Information Technology54
Mr. Charles S. MillerSenior Executive Vice President of Sales51
Ms. Anthony P. BroersmaExecutive Vice President of Operations45
Mr. John J. MilekVP & General Counsel-
Ms. Donnalee K. PapenfussExecutive VP of Strategy & Communications61
Ms. Noelle Joan Oas J.D.Executive Vice President of Human Resources40

Audit Risk

2

Board Risk

6

Compensation Risk

9

Shareholder Rights Risk

1

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-05

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-16

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-07-14

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for FAST, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 9d agoNEUTRAL
    Nasdaq-100® Inside the Index: Fastenal (FAST)

    Fastenal (FAST) is featured in this edition of Inside the Index, highlighting its industrial distribution strengths through managed-inventory programs, on-site services, and digital sales initiatives. However, the company faces significant risks including manufacturing sector sensitivity, ongoing margin pressures, and a potentially high valuation. Investors should monitor these factors closely as they could impact future performance.

  • 4/8/2026NEUTRAL
    Fastenal Gears Up For Q1 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts

    Fastenal Company (NASDAQ: FAST) is scheduled to report its Q1 earnings on April 13th. Current analyst consensus forecasts earnings per share of $0.30 and revenue of $2.19 billion. The stock experienced a slight decline of 0.5% on Tuesday. Recent analyst rating changes include Wells Fargo upgrading its rating from Underweight to Equal-Weight in March 2022, and Morgan Stanley maintaining an Underweight rating in January 2022. Investors will be closely watching the earnings report for any deviations from these expectations, which could influence future stock performance.

  • 2/26/2026POSITIVE
    Here's How Much You Would Have Made Owning Fastenal Stock In The Last 10 Years

    A recent analysis highlights the remarkable performance of Fastenal stock over the past ten years, revealing significant appreciation for long-term investors. This data underscores the company's strength in the industrial product distribution sector and its ability to generate consistent value over time. For investors, Fastenal's history serves as an example of how choosing companies with robust fundamentals and effective management can translate into consistent returns, even during periods of market volatility. The demonstrated stability and growth make Fastenal an interesting case study for those seeking durable investment opportunities.

via Markets Gazette