Exelon Corporation (EXC)
Fair ValueFundamental
46
Price
$40.35
Market Cap
$41.42B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Exelon delivers electricity and, in some territories, natural gas to homes and businesses across six regulated utilities: ComEd in Illinois, PECO in Pennsylvania, BGE in Maryland, and the Pepco Holdings companies serving Washington DC, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. It owns and maintains the wires, substations and pipelines that carry power from the grid to the meter, but — since spinning off its power plants as Constellation Energy in 2022 — it no longer generates electricity itself.
How it makes money
Exelon earns nothing from selling power itself: its revenue comes from regulated delivery rates that state commissions approve to cover the cost of building and maintaining the grid, plus a set return on that invested capital. Rates are reset through periodic rate cases, so revenue growth tracks approved capital spending on grid modernization more than electricity consumption. Because prices and allowed returns are negotiated with regulators rather than set by competition, earnings are steady but capped well below what an unregulated monopoly could charge.
Competitive moat
Scale · NarrowExelon's utilities hold exclusive, government-granted franchises to deliver power in their territories — no competitor can string a second set of wires to the same houses. That is a durable barrier to entry, but it comes bundled with the obligation to serve and a regulator-capped return, so it protects Exelon from competition without letting it earn outsized profits.
What drives demand
DefensiveHouseholds and businesses need electricity and gas regardless of the economic cycle, so volumes are far more stable than in most industries — the biggest swings come from weather, not recessions. Longer term, demand is shifting upward as electrification and data-centre growth increase load, while efficiency gains and mild winters work the other way.
Key risks
- Regulatory and rate case risk — Nearly all of Exelon's revenue depends on rates that state and federal regulators approve. An unfavorable rate case outcome, a disallowed capital expenditure, or a change in allowed return on equity directly reduces earnings.
- Storm and weather restoration costs — Extreme weather can knock out power to large parts of a service territory, forcing costly emergency restoration. Recovery of those costs through rates is not automatic and can lag the spending by months or years.
- Large, debt-funded capital programme — Exelon spends billions of dollars a year upgrading the grid, financed largely with new debt. Higher interest rates raise financing costs and a weaker balance sheet can eventually limit how much regulators let it invest.
- Energy transition and electrification uncertainty — Long-term growth assumptions rely on electrification of heating and transport and on new data-centre load. If that demand grows more slowly than planned, or policy support for the transition weakens, planned investment may not be recovered as expected.
- Cybersecurity and grid security — The grid is critical infrastructure and a target for cyberattacks and physical sabotage. A significant breach could disrupt service, trigger regulatory penalties and require costly remediation.
Customer concentration
Exelon serves millions of retail electricity and gas customers across its six utilities, mostly households and small businesses. No single customer accounts for a material share of revenue.
The case for
Buyers argue that Exelon's exclusive regulated franchises deliver predictable, growing earnings almost regardless of the economic cycle, and that rising electrification and data-centre demand give it years of rate-based capital investment to fund with regulator-approved returns.
The case against
Sellers fear that returns are permanently capped by regulators, that rising rates and heavy debt-funded capital spending squeeze margins, and that an adverse rate case or storm season can erode earnings with little the company can do about it.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Like Exelon, FirstEnergy is a pure wires company whose regulated distribution utilities serve Pennsylvania, Maryland and New Jersey — the same states and the same PJM transmission market where the two bid against each other for competitively awarded grid projects and for large new loads choosing where to connect.
PPL Electric Utilities delivers power in central and north-eastern Pennsylvania, next door to Exelon's PECO in the eastern part of the state, and PPL runs the same generation-free transmission-and-distribution model inside PJM.
PSEG's utility PSE&G covers the New Jersey corridor that borders the territory of Exelon's Atlantic City Electric, and the two compete for the same New Jersey regulatory approvals and the same PJM transmission build-out.
Ameren Illinois serves most of Illinois outside the Chicago area, directly adjacent to Exelon's ComEd, so the two argue their rate and grid-investment cases before the same Illinois Commerce Commission and compete for industrial customers siting in the state.
Con Edison is the other large East Coast utility built almost entirely on regulated electric and gas delivery in a dense urban territory, the same business Exelon runs in Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$24.79B
Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)
Net Income
$2.78B
Trailing 12 months (through 3/31/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$-2.27B
Total Equity
$28.80B
Total Liabilities
$87.77B
Current Ratio
0.94
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
5.78
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$49.33
Current Price
$40.35
Margin of Safety
+18.2%
Fair Value Range
$36.56 - $62.11
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
14.80
ROE
9.6%
P/B Ratio
1.41
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
3.8%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
3.8%
WACC
3.6%
ROIC − WACC
+0.2 pp
ROIC is roughly in line with the cost of capital — the company is barely covering its capital cost.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (13)
- P/B Ratio 1.41
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 21.0%
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- ROE 9.6%
- Earnings Surprise avg 3.9%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.44
- Share Dilution 1.0%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (10)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -2.41%
- Price CAGR 4.86%
- ROIC 3.8%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Revenue Growth 5Y -6.0%
- Analyst Consensus 27% Buy
- PEG Ratio 2.35
- Net Margin Trend 11.2% vs 11.4%
Unavailable (5)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- CapEx intensity
- Interest Coverage
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Share count is stable
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Calvin G. Butler Jr. | CEO, President & Director | 55 |
| Ms. Jeanne M. Jones | Executive VP of Audit & Risk and CFO | 46 |
| Mr. Michael A. Innocenzo | Executive VP & COO | 59 |
| Ms. Colette D. Honorable J.D. | Executive VP of Compliance, Chief Legal Officer & Corporate Secretary | 55 |
| Ms. Jessica K. Hart | Senior VP & Chief Investment Officer | 48 |
| Mr. Timothy George Peterson | Executive VP and Chief Customer & Technology Officer | 48 |
| Mr. Ryan Brown | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Cynthia McCabe | Senior VP & Chief Communications Officer | - |
| Ms. Elizabeth Pitts-Madonna | Senior VP & Chief Human Resources Officer | - |
| Mr. Carim V. Khouzami | Executive Vice President Transmission & Development | 50 |
Audit Risk
3
Board Risk
1
Compensation Risk
5
Shareholder Rights Risk
6
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-12
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-30
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-08-25
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for EXC, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 8/28/2026NEUTRALWhy Exelon’s CFO is stepping into a new strategy role
Exelon Corporation is shifting its Chief Financial Officer to a new strategy role, coinciding with a surge in electricity demand. This move suggests a potential pivot in the company's strategic direction and investment focus, aiming to capitalize on growing energy needs. While the specific details of the new strategy are not yet disclosed, the appointment of a key executive to a forward-looking position indicates a proactive approach to market opportunities. Investors will be watching for further announcements regarding capital allocation and strategic initiatives.
via Markets Gazette