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Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI)

Undervalued
Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsUnited States

Fundamental

69

Price

$193.25

Market Cap

$22.37B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Darden Restaurants is the largest full-service restaurant company in the United States. It owns and operates a portfolio of sit-down dining brands — Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Ruth's Chris Steak House, The Capital Grille, Eddie V's, Yard House, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Chuy's, Seasons 52, Bahama Breeze and The Capital Burger — spanning casual dining to fine dining. As of 31 May 2026 the company operated 2,202 restaurants in the United States, plus 4 under contractual arrangements and 1 jointly owned, and had 167 franchised or licensed restaurants (87 in the US, 80 international). Fiscal 2026 was a 53-week year ending 31 May 2026, with sales of $13,210.9 million.

How it makes money

Almost all revenue comes from food and beverage sold directly to guests in restaurants the company itself owns and operates, recognised at the moment of the sale; the rest comes from takeout and delivery of the same menus, and from gift cards recognised when redeemed. Alcohol is a meaningful part of the check, especially in fine dining: the filing puts alcoholic beverages at 4.1% of sales at Olive Garden and 26.4% at Eddie V's. Franchising is marginal by design — Darden collects development fees and royalties from 167 franchised or licensed restaurants, but the 10-K states that the income derived from franchise arrangements is not material to its consolidated financial statements. Profitability therefore depends on the average check (reported at $25.00 at Olive Garden and $107.00 at The Capital Grille), on guest counts, and on how much of each dollar survives food, labour and restaurant occupancy costs.

Revenue by segment

Olive Garden42.4%

Casual Italian-American full-service restaurants selling pasta, salad and breadsticks to families and value-minded diners, at an average check of $25.00 per person. It is the group's single largest brand and its volume engine.

LongHorn Steakhouse25.9%

Casual-dining steakhouses serving fresh steaks, chicken, seafood and ribs, with an average check of $28.50 per person. It sells a steakhouse occasion at a mainstream price point rather than a fine-dining one.

Other Business21.3%

The remaining owned brands — Yard House, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Chuy's, Seasons 52, Bahama Breeze and The Capital Burger — plus franchise fees and ongoing royalties from franchised and licensed restaurants.

Fine Dining10.4%

Ruth's Chris Steak House, The Capital Grille and Eddie V's: premium steak and seafood restaurants aimed at celebration and business dining, with average checks of $104.00, $107.00 and $126.00 and alcohol at 18.7% to 26.4% of sales.

Competitive moat

Scale · Narrow

Darden's advantage is size rather than any lock on the customer: a diner can switch to a competing restaurant at no cost, and the company itself describes the industry as intensely competitive. What scale buys is purchasing power across more than 1,400 suppliers in over 30 countries, shared distribution through third-party national distributors, and fixed costs for marketing, technology and back-office spread over 2,202 restaurants — which shows up as a cost per meal that a single-unit or regional operator cannot match. Olive Garden and LongHorn also carry real brand recognition. The advantage is narrow, not wide: it lowers cost, but it does not stop a guest from eating somewhere else tonight.

What drives demand

Cyclical

A restaurant meal is a discretionary purchase and one of the first things households postpone when money gets tight: they eat at home, or they trade down to a cheaper format. Darden itself names unemployment, energy prices and interest rates as influences on guest behaviour. Demand is driven by disposable income and consumer confidence, by the price gap between eating out and cooking at home (which widens when grocery inflation is lower than menu inflation), by the willingness of companies to pay for business dinners at the fine-dining brands, and by traffic patterns tied to holidays and the 53rd week in a long fiscal year. The portfolio is not uniformly cyclical: Olive Garden and LongHorn sit at price points that keep working in a downturn, while Ruth's Chris, The Capital Grille and Eddie V's, with checks above $100, swing harder with the cycle. In fiscal 2026 blended same-restaurant sales rose 4.5% and total sales 9.4%.

Key risks

  • Economic conditions change how often people eat out — Darden lists economic factors — unemployment, energy prices, interest rates and general macroeconomic disruption — as a direct influence on consumer discretionary spending and therefore on guest counts and average check.
  • Hiring, training and retaining restaurant staff — The filing flags the inability to hire, train, reward and retain restaurant team members and to maintain adequate staffing, alongside the recruitment and retention of leadership, as a risk to the guest experience and to results.
  • Rising labour and insurance costs — Increased labour and insurance costs are disclosed as a separate risk factor: wage inflation and higher insurance charges compress restaurant-level margins unless offset by pricing or productivity.
  • Food safety and food-borne illness — The company discloses that food-borne illness incidents and food safety issues, as well as food-related pandemics and disease outbreaks, can raise ingredient costs and availability problems and damage its brands.
  • Intense competition and shifting consumer preferences — Darden competes with national chains, regional operators and locally owned restaurants, and names the growth of fast casual, quick-service and home-delivery alternatives, together with changing consumer preferences, as risks to demand for its full-service format.
  • Long-term lease obligations — Of 2,202 US restaurants, 2,104 are leased. Those long-term commitments remain payable whether or not a given location performs, which makes closing an underperforming restaurant expensive.
  • Supply chain and distribution failures — Darden sources from more than 1,400 suppliers in over 30 countries and relies on third-party national distributors; it discloses supply chain disruptions and vendor delivery failures as a risk, along with commodity price volatility and its hedging.
  • Cybersecurity, third-party breaches and privacy law — The company discloses the risk of security breaches at outsourced third-party providers and of compromise to its own data protection systems, plus the cost of complying with privacy laws.
  • Execution of growth: new sites and new openings — Risk factors cover the ability to drive profitable sales growth, the availability and quality of suitable restaurant locations, and the cost and delay of opening new restaurants — the mechanics behind the 43 net new restaurants added in fiscal 2026.
  • Reputation, adverse publicity and social media — Darden discloses that adverse publicity can damage its reputation and that managing the impact of social media is a distinct challenge — a single incident in one restaurant can travel across a brand of hundreds.
  • Impairment of goodwill and intangible assets — The filing lists impairment of goodwill and other intangible assets as a risk — relevant for a group that has grown by acquiring brands such as Ruth's Chris and Chuy's.

Customer concentration

There is no customer concentration to measure: the 10-K states plainly that the company does not rely on any major customers as a source of sales. Revenue comes from millions of individual restaurant guests, so no single account can be lost. The concentration that does exist sits on the other side of the business — Darden buys from more than 1,400 suppliers across more than 30 countries but relies on a small number of third-party national distribution companies to deliver to its restaurants, and it discloses vendor and distribution failures as a risk.

The case for

Buyers argue that scale is the whole point: with 2,202 owned restaurants, purchasing leverage over more than 1,400 suppliers and shared marketing and technology costs, Darden can hold a price gap over independents and still earn a margin, and it keeps taking share as weaker operators close. They point to fiscal 2026, when sales rose 9.4% to $13,210.9 million on blended same-restaurant sales of 4.5% and 43 net new restaurants, with LongHorn as the standout. They like the balance of the portfolio — Olive Garden and LongHorn providing everyday volume, the fine-dining brands providing a higher check — and the fact that growth needs no franchising story, since the company keeps the whole economics of each restaurant. And they note that the business converts sales into cash steadily enough to fund a raised dividend and a new $1.5 billion buyback authorisation while still opening restaurants.

The case against

Sellers fear that a full-service restaurant chain has no lock on anyone: the company itself calls the industry intensely competitive, and a guest can walk to a fast-casual, a quick-service or a delivery app at zero cost. They worry that demand is genuinely discretionary — the disclosed sensitivity to unemployment, energy prices and interest rates means traffic can turn quickly in a downturn, and the fine-dining brands with checks above $100 turn fastest. They point to the cost side: rising labour and insurance costs are a named risk factor, and 2,104 of 2,202 US restaurants are leased, so a large fixed obligation stays in place even when sales fall, making an underperforming site slow and expensive to exit. They also note that growth increasingly comes from opening and acquiring restaurants, which exposes the group to site availability, opening delays and possible impairment of goodwill and intangibles — another disclosed risk — and that a 53-week fiscal year flatters the reported growth rate compared with a 52-week one.

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 25.0Score: 73Market cap: $10.60B

The largest value steakhouse chain in the United States, it is the head-to-head rival of LongHorn Steakhouse for the family steak dinner at around thirty dollars a head.

P/E: 28.6Score: 73Market cap: $5.23B

Its large-format restaurants target the same occasion as Yard House and the upper end of Olive Garden: a sit-down meal with alcohol in high-traffic malls and city centres.

Brinker International, Inc.EAT

Owner of Chili's Grill & Bar and Maggiano's Little Italy, it fights Olive Garden and Cheddar's for the same mid-priced American casual-dining customer, in the same suburban U.S. locations.

Bloomin' Brands, Inc.BLMN

Through Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill and Bonefish Grill it competes concept by concept with LongHorn, Olive Garden and Eddie V's across the same U.S. casual-dining market.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.CBRL

It draws the same value-seeking family and older customer as Olive Garden and Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, often from the same highway and suburban catchment areas.

Ruth's Hospitality-style fine dining peer: Fogo de Chão, Inc.Not tracked

A privately held Brazilian-style steakhouse group whose upscale, special-occasion dinners compete directly with The Capital Grille and Ruth's Chris Steak House in major U.S. cities.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$13.21B

Trailing 12 months (through 5/31/2026)

Net Income

$1.21B

Trailing 12 months (through 5/31/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$1.12B

Total Equity

$2.21B

Total Liabilities

$10.65B

Current Ratio

0.31

Interest Coverage

12.51

Debt/EBITDA

3.74

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseUndervalued

Fair Value

$269.65

Current Price

$193.25

Margin of Safety

+28.3%

Fair Value Range

$175.27 - $364.03

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$234.42
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$401.02
Earnings multiple (P/E):$191.80
Graham growth formula:$386.97
Earnings power value (EPV):$132.75
Justified P/B:$243.22
Dividend discount (Gordon):$151.08
P/FFO, funds from operations:$247.94
Mid-cycle earnings:$150.07
Revenue multiple:$200.28
Analyst Consensus:Buy (20B / 12H / 1S)
Last Earnings Surprise:-1.23%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

18.62

ROE

54.7%

P/B Ratio

9.99

P/FCF

19.70

Gross Margin

20.3%

ROIC

12.7%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

12.7%

WACC

6.3%

ROIC − WACC

+6.3 pp

ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 7.99%
  • Price CAGR 11.18%
  • ROIC 12.7%
  • P/FCF 19.70
  • Operating Margin 12.0%
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 55.9%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 12.9%
  • Analyst Consensus 61% Buy
  • PEG Ratio 1.14
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.54
  • Share Dilution -1.9%
  • Net Margin Trend 9.1% vs 8.7%
  • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

Failed (9)

  • Gross Margin 20.3%
  • P/B Ratio 9.99
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • CapEx intensity
  • Current Ratio
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -1.1%

Unavailable (1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-Score

6/9

Mixed signals: some areas need attention

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.54

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

-1.9%

Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Rajesh VennamSenior VP & CFO51
Ms. Sarah H. KingSenior VP & Chief People Officer55
Mr. Todd A. BurrowesPresident of Business Development62
Mr. John Melvin MartinPresident of Specialty Restaurant Group64
Mr. Christopher ChangSenior VP & Chief Information Officer-
Ms. Courtney AquillaVice President of Finance & Investor Relations-
Ms. Lindsay L. KorenSenior VP, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer & Corporate Secretary47
Ms. Susan M. ConnellySenior VP and Chief Communications & Public Affairs Officer54
Mr. Douglas J. MilanesSenior VP & Chief Supply Chain Officer62
Ms. Jaime BunkerSenior Vice President of Marketing - Olive Garden-

Audit Risk

3

Board Risk

2

Compensation Risk

8

Shareholder Rights Risk

1

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-07-24

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-03-27

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-09-24

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for DRI, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 7d agoNEGATIVE
    Darden Restaurants Falls on Results; Stitch Fix Down on Forecast | Stock Movers

    Darden Restaurants (DRI) experienced a share price decline following the release of its first-quarter financial results. Despite reporting an increase in sales, the company's profits saw a reduction, accompanied by a rise in operational expenses. This performance, particularly the slip in profits and increased costs, has led to investor concern, overshadowing the positive sales figures and prompting a negative market reaction.

  • 6/25/2026NEGATIVE
    Darden Posts Weak Outlook as Olive Garden Sales Disappoint

    Darden Restaurants Inc. issued a cautious profit outlook, primarily due to disappointing same-store sales at its flagship Olive Garden chain, which fell short of expectations. This underperformance raises concerns about consumer demand within the casual dining sector, overshadowing the company's otherwise better-than-expected earnings. Analysts note that the weakness at Olive Garden, a key revenue driver, suggests potential headwinds for the broader restaurant industry. Investors will be closely monitoring Darden's ability to navigate these demand challenges and manage costs in the coming quarters.

  • 3/20/2026POSITIVE
    These Analysts Increase Their Forecasts On Darden Restaurants Following Upbeat Results

    Darden Restaurants Inc. reported strong Q3 results, surpassing analyst expectations with earnings per share of $2.95 and sales reaching $3.345 billion. Following this upbeat performance, several analysts have revised their price targets upwards, indicating increased confidence in the company's future prospects. This positive financial momentum, coupled with favorable analyst sentiment, suggests potential for continued stock appreciation. Investors should monitor the company's strategic initiatives and consumer spending trends for further insights into its growth trajectory.

  • 3/19/2026POSITIVE
    Darden Serves Up A Win — LongHorn Steakhouse Is The Star Dish

    Darden Restaurants Inc. reported Q3 sales of $3.35 billion, surpassing analyst estimates. The company's flagship brand, LongHorn Steakhouse, was a significant driver of this success, achieving a robust 7.2% growth. This strong performance indicates Darden's ability to navigate the current economic landscape and capitalize on consumer dining trends. Investors will be watching to see if this momentum can be sustained in subsequent quarters, potentially leading to positive stock performance.

  • 3/19/2026NEUTRAL
    Darden Gears Up For Q3 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street's Most Accurate Analysts

    Darden Restaurants is set to report its third-quarter earnings on March 19th. Wall Street analysts are forecasting earnings per share of $2.94 on revenues of $3.33 billion. While the consensus estimates provide a baseline, recent analyst rating changes from Benzinga's top-rated analysts indicate mixed sentiment. Investors will be closely watching the company's guidance for the upcoming quarter and any commentary on consumer spending trends within the casual dining sector, as these will be key drivers for future stock performance.

  • 3/17/2026NEUTRAL
    The spike in gas prices might affect Olive Garden sales, but not in the way you’d expect

    Darden Restaurants, the parent company of Olive Garden, is set to report earnings this week. While rising oil prices and a meatpacking plant strike are noted as potential headwinds, the article suggests the impact on Olive Garden sales might be counterintuitive. Investors will be closely watching the earnings call for management's commentary on consumer spending trends, cost management strategies, and outlook for the casual dining sector amidst these macroeconomic factors.

via Markets Gazette