Churchill Downs, Incorporated (CHDN)
Fair ValueFundamental
65
Price
$75.68
Market Cap
$5.27B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing entertainment venues, online wagering businesses, and regional casino gaming properties in the United States. It operates through three segments: Live and Historical Racing, Wagering Services and Solutions, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment engages in live and historical pari-mutuel racing related activities at Churchill Downs Racetrack and its historical racing properties in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire; provides racing event-related services, including admissions, personal seat licenses, sponsorships, television rights, and other miscellaneous services, as well as food and beverages services. The Wagering Services and Solutions engages in pari-mutuel wagers through TwinSpires, which operates the online horse racing wagering business for TwinSpires.com, BetAmerica.com, and other white-label platforms; facilitates dollar wagering; provides the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data; offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and an assortment of racing and handicapping information; and provides technology services to third parties. This segment also operates retail and online sports betting businesses, United Tote, which manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks, OTBs, and other pari-mutuel wagering businesses, and Exacta, which provides central determinant system technology in HRMs. The Gaming segment operates the casino properties and associated racetracks, which include slot machines, table games, video lottery terminals, video poker, HRMs, ancillary food and beverage services, hotel services, commission on pari-mutuel wagering, racing event-related services, and other miscellaneous operations. Churchill Downs Incorporated was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
No editorial profile for this company yet
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Penn runs racetrack-casinos and regional properties in the same Midwest and Southern markets as Churchill Downs, and competes for the same local gaming customer both on the casino floor and online.
Through TVG/FanDuel Racing it is the closest rival to TwinSpires for online horse-race wagering in the United States, with a handle of a size comparable to Churchill Downs' own platform.
Caesars competes in the same regional casino markets, including Louisiana and the Midwest, and is pushing into racing-and-gaming venues of the kind Churchill Downs builds around historical racing machines.
It owns flagship tracks such as Santa Anita, Pimlico and Gulfstream Park and the Xpressbet wagering platform, competing with Churchill Downs for the same bettors, the same race dates and the same horsemen.
Boyd operates regional casinos in Louisiana, Mississippi and the Midwest that draw on the same local customer base as Churchill Downs' gaming properties.
NYRA runs Saratoga, Belmont and Aqueduct and its own NYRA Bets platform, competing with Churchill Downs for premier race meets and for the online wagering handle they generate.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$2.99B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$413M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
-
Total Equity
$1.01B
Total Liabilities
$6.43B
Current Ratio
0.36
Interest Coverage
2.47
Debt/EBITDA
5.21
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$93.26
Current Price
$75.68
Margin of Safety
+18.9%
Fair Value Range
$65.05 - $121.48
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
12.91
ROE
37.9%
P/B Ratio
3.93
P/FCF
-
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
9.3%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
9.3%
WACC
7.1%
ROIC − WACC
+2.2 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (15)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR 9.66%
- Price CAGR 12.37%
- ROIC 9.3%
- Operating Margin 24.1%
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 36.9%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 22.6%
- Analyst Consensus 94% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 4.4%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.92
- Share Dilution -3.6%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (7)
- P/B Ratio 3.93
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Current Ratio
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Net Margin Trend 13.8% vs 15.2%
Unavailable (6)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- P/FCF NaN
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. William C. Carstanjen | CEO & Director | 57 |
| Mr. William E. Mudd | President & COO | 54 |
| Ms. Marcia Ann Dall CPA | Executive VP & CFO | 61 |
| Mr. Bradley K. Blackwell J.D. | Executive VP, General Counsel & Secretary | 53 |
| Mr. Jon E. Rauch | VP & Chief Accounting Officer | - |
| Mr. Nate Simon | Senior VP & CTO | - |
| Sam Ullrich | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Mr. Jason Sauer | Senior Vice President of Corporate Development | - |
| Ms. M. Katherine Armstrong | Senior VP of Human Resources | - |
| Mr. Michael W. Anderson | Senior VP & President of Churchill Downs Racetrack | 54 |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
2
Compensation Risk
3
Shareholder Rights Risk
7
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-25
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-07-29
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-28
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CHDN, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 2/21/2026POSITIVEBeck Bode Initiates Churchill Downs Position as Regional Gaming Expansion Lifts Growth Prospects
Beck Bode has initiated a position in Churchill Downs Inc., signaling confidence in the company's growth prospects. Churchill Downs is actively expanding its network of casinos and historical racing venues, aiming to generate recurring revenue streams from the gaming sector. Investors are assessing the effectiveness of this investment phase, but Beck Bode's initiative suggests a positive outlook on the economic returns of these expansions. The strategy seeks to diversify profit sources beyond the traditional annual horse racing event, solidifying the company's presence in the gaming market.
via Markets Gazette