Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)
Fair ValueFundamental
64
Price
$24.54
Market Cap
$29.84B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Carnival Corporation & plc operates cruise ships under brands including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line and Cunard, selling multi-day vacations that bundle lodging, meals, entertainment and transportation between ports into one trip. It is the largest cruise operator in the world by fleet size and passenger volume, owns most of the private islands and destination resorts its ships visit, and sells directly to consumers as well as through travel agents.
How it makes money
Revenue has two parts: passenger ticket revenue, booked and largely paid before the cruise sails, and onboard and other revenue from spending during the trip on drinks, excursions, casinos, wifi and spa services, which carries higher margin than the ticket itself. Because a ship's capacity is fixed and its costs are largely the same whether cabins are full or empty, occupancy and onboard spending per passenger matter more to profit than the headline ticket price.
Revenue by segment
Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America Line and other brands sailing itineraries sold mainly to North American and Australian guests.
Cunard, Costa, AIDA and P&O Cruises brands operating itineraries sold mainly to European guests.
What drives demand
CyclicalCruising is discretionary leisure spending, so bookings and onboard spending contract when consumer confidence or disposable income falls, and the business proved it can stop almost entirely in a crisis, as it did during the pandemic. Fuel prices, which the company cannot fully pass through to already-booked guests, add a second source of swings unrelated to demand itself.
Key risks
- Fuel cost and availability — The company states that increases in fuel costs, changes in the types of fuel consumed, and disruptions in fuel supply may adversely impact scheduled itineraries and costs.
- Environmental and emissions regulation — Greenhouse gas and other emissions rules can materially affect results; the EU Emissions Trading System alone cost the company $91 million in 2025 on the share of emissions currently within its scope, a share set to rise in future years.
- Cybersecurity and data privacy — Cybersecurity incidents and data privacy breaches, along with disruptions to information technology operations, may adversely impact business operations and lead to fines, penalties and reputational damage.
- Regulatory and compliance exposure — Changes in and non-compliance with laws on health, environment, safety, security, data protection, anti-corruption, sanctions and labor can be costly and lead to litigation, enforcement actions and fines across the many jurisdictions the fleet operates in.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
Named by Carnival in its 10-K as a principal competitor, it sells the same contemporary and premium ocean cruises through Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity and Silversea, chasing the same Caribbean, Alaska and Mediterranean holidaymakers.
The third of the big listed operators Carnival names in its 10-K, it covers the same ladder of price points as Carnival — Norwegian in the mass market, Oceania and Regent Seven Seas against Holland America, Princess and Seabourn.
Its 20-F lists Holland America Line, Princess Cruises and Seabourn — all Carnival brands — among the operators it competes with for premium and luxury ocean passengers, and it also takes river-cruise customers who might otherwise sail with Carnival.
Privately held and also named in Carnival's 10-K, it is the fourth operator of the group that holds about 80% of industry capacity and competes head-on with Costa and AIDA for European passengers as well as in the Caribbean.
Through TUI Cruises and Marella Cruises it sells packaged cruise holidays to German and British customers, the same buyers Carnival serves with AIDA Cruises and P&O Cruises UK.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$27.31B
Trailing 12 months (through 5/31/2026)
Net Income
$3.07B
Trailing 12 months (through 5/31/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$2.61B
Total Equity
$12.27B
Total Liabilities
$39.40B
Current Ratio
0.33
Interest Coverage
3.70
Debt/EBITDA
3.60
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$26.12
Current Price
$24.54
Margin of Safety
+6.0%
Fair Value Range
$17.45 - $34.79
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
10.96
ROE
22.5%
P/B Ratio
2.59
P/FCF
10.50
Gross Margin
-
ROIC
9.1%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
9.1%
WACC
11.5%
ROIC − WACC
-2.4 pp
ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (17)
- ROIC 9.1%
- P/FCF 10.50
- P/B Ratio 2.59
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 16.3%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Interest Coverage
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- ROE 24.4%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 36.6%
- Analyst Consensus 82% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 17.2%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.21
- Net Margin Trend 11.2% vs 9.7%
- Piotroski F-Score 7/9
Failed (8)
- EPS shows upward trend
- EPS CAGR -2.08%
- Price CAGR -8.34%
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- Share Dilution 2.7%
Unavailable (3)
- Gross Margin NaN%
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Strong financial health
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Issuing new shares, diluting ownership
Institutional Holdings
No institutional filings reported for this company.
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Michael Meir Arison | Executive Chairman of the Board | 76 |
| Mr. Joshua Ian Weinstein | CEO & Director | 51 |
| Mr. David Bernstein | CFO & Chief Accounting Officer | 67 |
| Mr. Enrique Miguez J.D. | General Counsel | 60 |
| Ms. Bettina A. Deynes | Global Chief Human Resources Officer | 52 |
| Mr. Lars Ljoen | Chief Maritime Officer | 55 |
| Ms. Beth Roberts | Senior Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Jody Venturoni | Chief Communications Officer | - |
| Hon. E. H. Horst Rahe | Life President of AIDA Cruises | - |
| Mr. Adolfo M. Perez | Senior Vice President of Trade Sales and Marketing for Carnival Cruise Line | - |
Audit Risk
7
Board Risk
9
Compensation Risk
1
Shareholder Rights Risk
9
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-01-27
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-09-29
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-29
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CCL, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 2d agoPOSITIVESprint sul debito di Carnival: utili record possono battere tassi più alti?
Carnival Corporation reported a record third-quarter net income of $1.9 billion on record revenue of $8.44 billion, significantly beating expectations. The cruise line is leveraging its strong operational performance to aggressively pay down its pandemic-era debt. This robust cash flow generation is critical for reducing high-interest debt before unfavorable refinancing conditions arise. Investors are watching closely as the company aims to improve its balance sheet, a key factor for future profitability and shareholder value, despite a recent stock price dip.
- 2d agoPOSITIVECarnival Raises Full-Year Outlook on Record Booking Demand
Carnival Corporation & plc has elevated its full-year financial forecast, driven by unprecedented booking demand for upcoming voyages. The cruise giant reported that demand for future sailings reached an all-time high during the most recent quarter. This surge in bookings indicates strong consumer confidence and a robust appetite for leisure travel, suggesting that Carnival is well-positioned to exceed previous revenue and profit expectations. Investors will be watching for continued momentum in booking trends and the company's ability to translate this demand into enhanced profitability.
- 6/18/2026POSITIVECarnival Stock Rises As Oil Prices Fall After MoU
Carnival Corporation (CCL) stock saw a notable increase on Thursday, driven by a significant drop in oil prices. This decline in fuel costs is attributed to a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the U.S. and Iran, potentially leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. As a major consumer of fuel, the cruise industry, and Carnival in particular, stands to benefit directly from lower operating expenses. This development is viewed positively by investors, suggesting improved profit margins and a more favorable cost environment for the company.
- 6/16/2026NEUTRALCarnival Earnings Are Imminent; These Most Accurate Analysts Revise Forecasts Ahead Of Earnings Call
Carnival Corporation is set to announce its Q2 earnings on June 23rd. Current analyst consensus anticipates an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.34 and revenue projections of $6.69 billion. While recent analyst ratings from firms like Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, and Credit Suisse show a mixed sentiment with 'Hold', 'Neutral', and 'Outperform' ratings respectively, the upcoming earnings report will be crucial for investors. The market will be looking for any deviations from these forecasts, which could significantly impact the stock's trajectory.
- 5/28/2026NEGATIVECarnival Data Breach Exposes Names, Addresses And Government ID Numbers After Cybercriminals Trick Employee In Social Engineering Attack
Carnival Corporation disclosed a significant data breach following a social engineering attack that compromised an employee account. The breach exposed sensitive personal information including names, addresses, and government identification numbers of individuals. This incident poses substantial risks of identity theft and fraud for those affected, and could lead to significant regulatory fines and reputational damage for Carnival. Investors will be closely monitoring the company's response, potential legal liabilities, and the financial impact of remediation efforts and any potential lawsuits stemming from the compromised data.
- 4/8/2026POSITIVECarnival’s stock soars as the Iran cease-fire provides relief from surging fuel costs
Carnival's stock experienced a significant surge following the announcement of a cease-fire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. This development is expected to provide relief from escalating fuel costs, a major operational expense for cruise lines. Investors are optimistic that reduced fuel prices will improve Carnival's profit margins and enhance consumer spending confidence, potentially leading to increased bookings. The news suggests a more favorable operating environment, which could translate into stronger financial performance for the company in the near to medium term.
- 3/27/2026NEGATIVECarnival cuts profit outlook as a jump in fuel costs offsets record cruise demand
Carnival Corporation & plc has lowered its profit outlook, citing a significant surge in fuel costs. The cruise operator reported that fuel expenses for the current quarter are expected to jump by over 40% compared to the previous quarter. While record cruise demand has been observed, the escalating operational costs are now offsetting this positive trend. This development is likely to impact investor sentiment and could lead to downward revisions in earnings estimates for the company.
- 3/27/2026NEGATIVECarnival Cuts Profit Outlook as Iran War Pushes up Fuel Cost
Carnival Corp. has lowered its full-year profit forecast, citing a significant increase in operational expenses due to soaring crude oil prices. The company, a major player in the cruise industry, is directly impacted by rising fuel costs, which are a substantial component of its operating budget. This revision signals potential headwinds for the company's financial performance in the coming quarters. Investors will be closely watching management's strategies to mitigate these cost pressures and their effectiveness in the current volatile energy market.
via Markets Gazette