Maplebear Inc. (CART)
Fair ValueFundamental
76
Price
$43.12
Market Cap
$10.01B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
Maplebear operates Instacart, an app that lets people order groceries online from a local store and have them shopped and delivered, usually within an hour. Instacart does not own inventory or stores: it connects shoppers (independent contractors who pick and deliver orders) with retailers who list their stock, and with consumers who pay for the convenience. It also runs an advertising business that lets brands pay to appear more prominently in search results and shelves.
How it makes money
Transaction revenue comes from fees and commissions on each order: delivery fees, service fees and a cut of what retailers pay to be on the platform. Advertising revenue comes from brands bidding for placement in search results and featured spots, and it carries a much higher margin than moving groceries around, which is why it has become the faster-growing and more profitable half of the business.
Revenue by segment
Delivery fees, service fees and retailer commissions charged on grocery orders placed through the app.
Fees brands pay for sponsored placement and search visibility, plus enterprise platform and membership fees.
Competitive moat
Switching costs · NarrowRetailers that integrate Instacart's ordering and fulfillment technology into their own e-commerce build real switching costs, since replacing that plumbing is disruptive. But consumers face almost no cost to open a rival delivery app instead, and several of Instacart's own retail partners are simultaneously testing or building their own delivery capabilities, which caps how durable the advantage is.
What drives demand
Moderately cyclicalGrocery spending itself is largely non-discretionary, but paying a premium to have it delivered is a convenience consumers can cut back on when budgets tighten, by shopping in person or choosing pickup instead. Order frequency and basket size are therefore more sensitive to the economy than grocery demand as a whole.
Key risks
- Retailer concentration — The top three retail partners generate roughly 43% of gross transaction value; the loss of one of them would be a large, immediate hit rather than a marginal one.
- Independent-contractor shoppers — The delivery model depends on classifying shoppers as independent contractors rather than employees; a regulatory or legal change forcing reclassification would raise costs and disrupt operations.
- Intense and shifting competition — Instacart competes against DoorDash, Uber and Amazon, and against retailers building their own delivery capabilities — some of whom are simultaneously Instacart's largest customers.
- Pandemic-era growth may not repeat — Much of Instacart's early scale came from a surge in online grocery adoption during the pandemic; the company acknowledges that pace of growth may not be representative of a maturing market.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 43% of revenue
Instacart's top three retail partners, including Kroger, together account for about 43% of gross transaction value, so losing or renegotiating with even one of them would be felt across the whole business.
The case for
Buyers argue that Instacart's advertising business, still a minority of revenue but growing faster and far more profitable than order fulfillment, can keep re-rating overall margins upward even if grocery-delivery order growth itself slows to match a maturing market.
The case against
Sellers fear that Instacart sits between two more powerful groups — a handful of retailers that supply nearly half its transaction volume and could build their own delivery, and gig workers whose legal status is under constant regulatory pressure — leaving less room to raise prices than the advertising growth story implies.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users
DoorDash runs the closest rival same-day marketplace, signing the same US grocery and convenience chains, courting the same weekly-shop households and selling the same retail-media ads to consumer-goods brands.
Through Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods, Amazon sells and delivers groceries directly to the same US households, bundling the service into Prime rather than charging Instacart's separate membership.
Walmart is the largest US grocer and fulfils online orders from its own stores with its own drivers and the Walmart+ subscription, taking the same baskets Instacart would otherwise deliver.
Uber Eats has extended its courier network from restaurants into grocery and retail delivery, competing for the same retailer partnerships, the same shoppers and the same delivery couriers in the US and Canada.
Target owns Shipt, a same-day delivery membership that serves both Target's own stores and third-party grocery chains — the same two-sided model Instacart sells to retailers.
GoPuff is vertically integrated — it owns the micro-warehouses and the delivery — and targets the same urban customers for convenience and top-up grocery orders, without needing a retail partner.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$3.99B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$480M
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$910M
Total Equity
$2.52B
Total Liabilities
$974M
Current Ratio
2.28
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.06
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$51.67
Current Price
$43.12
Margin of Safety
+16.5%
Fair Value Range
$33.58 - $69.75
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
23.43
ROE
17.8%
P/B Ratio
4.30
P/FCF
8.49
Gross Margin
72.6%
ROIC
18.0%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC
18.0%
WACC
9.1%
ROIC − WACC
+8.9 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (18)
- EPS shows upward trend
- Price CAGR 22.32%
- ROIC 18.0%
- Gross Margin 72.6%
- P/FCF 8.49
- Debt/Equity ratio
- Operating Margin 14.8%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- CapEx intensity
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- Return on Tangible Assets
- ROE 16.7%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 20.4%
- Analyst Consensus 60% Buy
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.57
- Share Dilution -3.4%
- Piotroski F-Score 6/9
Failed (6)
- P/B Ratio 4.30
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- DCF valuation (Fairly valued)
- Earnings Surprise avg -16.6%
- Net Margin Trend 12.0% vs 13.8%
Unavailable (3)
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)
Piotroski F-Score
Mixed signals: some areas need attention
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Chris Rogers | Chairman, CEO & President | 46 |
| Ms. Emily Maher | CFO & Treasurer | - |
| Mr. Morgan William Fong | Chief Legal & Global Affairs Officer and Secretary | 48 |
| Mr. Mike Dee | Co-founder | - |
| Mr. Tom Maguire | VP & Head of Operations | - |
| Ms. Lisa Blackwood-Kapral | Chief Accounting Officer & Principal Accounting Officer | 57 |
| Mr. Anirban Kundu | Chief Technology Officer | - |
| Rebecca Yoshiyama | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Laura Rachel Jones | Chief Marketing Officer | 43 |
| Ms. Christina Hall | Chief People Officer | - |
Audit Risk
4
Board Risk
7
Compensation Risk
10
Shareholder Rights Risk
8
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Documents
- View document
Annual Report (10-K)
A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.
Filed on 2026-02-26
- View document
Quarterly Report (10-Q)
A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.
Filed on 2026-08-07
- View document
Current Report (8-K)
An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.
Filed on 2026-09-25
via SEC EDGAR
Income History
via SEC EDGAR
Latest News
Recent headlines for CART, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 3/9/2026NEGATIVEHedge Fund Incline Global Sold Its Entire Stake in Instacart Parent Maplebear Worth $15.5 Million. Is the Stock a Buy or Sell?
Hedge fund Incline Global has divested its entire stake in Maplebear Inc., the parent company of Instacart, valued at approximately $15.5 million. This significant sell-off by a major investor raises concerns about the fund's outlook on the company's future performance and growth prospects. Maplebear Inc. operates a platform connecting consumers with personal shoppers for on-demand grocery delivery. The decision by Incline Global to exit its position could signal a lack of confidence, potentially impacting investor sentiment and the stock's valuation.
- 3/7/2026POSITIVEGoodnow Investment Group Boosts Stake in Instacart as Brands Compete for Digital Shelf Space
Goodnow Investment Group has significantly increased its stake in Instacart, the prominent online grocery marketplace. This move signals strong conviction from a key investor, likely driven by the growing competition among consumer brands for prime digital shelf space within grocery applications. This competition directly fuels Instacart's advertising revenue, a critical component for its long-term profitability. Investors will be closely monitoring how effectively Instacart can leverage this advertising demand to enhance its financial performance and market position.
via Markets Gazette