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BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)

Fair Value
HealthcareHealth Information ServicesUnited States

Fundamental

64

Price

$56.03

Market Cap

$11.23B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

BrightSpring Health Services is a US home- and community-based healthcare platform that combines pharmacy with hands-on clinical care for medically complex patients — people with chronic illness, disabilities, behavioural health needs, or who are elderly and frail. The company says it serves roughly 465,000 patients a day in all 50 states through about 10,500 clinicians and pharmacists, filled over 43 million prescriptions in 2025 from more than 175 pharmacy, infusion and specialty oncology locations, and delivered around 21 million hours of home health, hospice, rehab and home care. Despite the platform's size, the economics are those of a distributor plus a labour-intensive service business, not of a software or information-services company: 2025 revenue from continuing operations was $12,911 million with gross profit of $1,518 million and net income of $104.8 million. The Community Living business was moved out of continuing operations and sold to Sevita, a sale the company expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2026.

How it makes money

Revenue comes from two very different engines. In pharmacy, BrightSpring dispenses and delivers medicines — infusion and specialty drugs, and long-term-care and community pharmacy — and is paid per prescription, mostly by pharmacy benefit managers, Medicare Part D plans, Medicaid and commercial insurers, with some income tied to relationships with drug manufacturers. Because the drug itself is bought and resold, revenue per script rises with the price of the molecules dispensed rather than with volume alone: the company reported Q4 2025 revenue per script of $291.07, up 33% year over year. In provider services, BrightSpring is paid for care delivered — per visit, per hour, per day of care or per episode — largely by Medicare, Medicaid and commercial payors, so revenue tracks census, hours worked and government reimbursement rates. The filing does not disclose a percentage split of revenue by payor type.

Revenue by segment

Pharmacy Solutions88.7%

Dispenses and delivers medicines: infusion and specialty pharmacy (including oncology), plus home and community pharmacy for patients living outside institutional settings. Customers are the patients themselves, but the money comes from PBMs, Medicare Part D plans, Medicaid and commercial insurers; the segment filled over 43 million prescriptions in 2025.

Provider Services11.3%

Hands-on clinical and supportive care delivered at home and in the community: home health, hospice, rehabilitation therapy, home-based primary care and help with daily living. Paid mainly by Medicare, Medicaid and commercial payors for hours and visits delivered — about 21 million hours of care in 2025.

Competitive moat

Scale · Narrow

BrightSpring's advantage is operational reach rather than pricing power: a national pharmacy network of more than 175 locations across all 50 states, paired with clinicians in the home, lets it serve complex patients that a single-site pharmacy or a local home-health agency cannot, and referral partners value one supplier that covers both. But this is a thin edge. Gross margin on 2025 revenue of $12,911 million was $1,518 million, the economics of a business that buys drugs and resells them; prices are set by government schedules and PBM contracts, not by the company; and both markets remain fragmented and contestable, with large distributors and payor-owned rivals able to do the same work. The scale advantage is real but narrow, and it depends on reimbursement rules the company does not control.

What drives demand

Defensive

Demand does not follow the economic cycle. Patients need dialysis-adjacent infusions, oncology drugs, hospice or home health whether or not GDP is growing, and the bills are paid mostly by Medicare and Medicaid rather than by household budgets, so a recession barely touches volumes. The underlying driver is demographic — an ageing population and the shift of care out of hospitals into the home, which is cheaper for payors. The cycle that matters here is political, not economic: reimbursement rate decisions, state Medicaid budgets and drug-pricing policy move the results far more than consumer confidence does, and they can move against the company in a strong economy just as easily as in a weak one.

Key risks

  • Government reimbursement rates can be cut — The company discloses that changes to Medicare and Medicaid rates, to payment methodologies and to case mix and payor mix, along with reliance on federal and state healthcare spending, could reduce what it is paid for the same work. Cost-containment programmes by third-party payors and the roll-out of alternative payment models are listed alongside them.
  • Drug pricing, PBM contracts and supplier relationships — BrightSpring lists changes in drug utilisation and pricing and in its contracts with pharmacy benefit managers among its risk factors, as well as changes in its relationships with pharmaceutical suppliers. Since the pharmacy segment resells purchased medicines, a squeeze on either the buy side or the reimbursement side lands directly on a thin gross margin.
  • Recruiting and keeping clinical staff — The company flags its ability to recruit and retain healthcare personnel, compliance with employment laws including minimum wage and paid time-off requirements, and labour relations matters. Care is delivered by people, and wage inflation cannot simply be passed through to payors whose rates are fixed.
  • Dependence on referral sources — The filing names dependence on patient referral sources, and the risk that customer contracts are not renewed or are reduced in scope. Hospitals, physicians and payors decide where patients go; losing a referral relationship removes volume the company cannot replace by selling harder.
  • Regulation, investigations and malpractice — The company discloses risks from the extensive healthcare regulatory framework, from governmental inquiries and regulatory actions, from malpractice and similar claims, and from security breaches and loss of patient data, noting its insurance may not cover everything.
  • Debt load and a controlling shareholder — The 10-K discloses substantial indebtedness of approximately $2.6 billion as of 31 December 2025, and separately flags the ownership position of the KKR stockholder and the potential conflicts of interest that come with it.
  • Acquisitions and growth management — Among the disclosed risks are the execution of acquisitions and their integration, the challenge of managing growth, delays in collecting accounts receivable, and impairment of goodwill — the accounting consequence if acquired businesses underperform.

Customer concentration

The filing does not disclose a percentage of revenue from any single customer, nor a breakdown of revenue by payor. What it does disclose is the shape of the exposure: it lists dependence on patient referral sources, contracts with pharmacy benefit managers, reliance on federal and state healthcare spending, and the risk that customer contracts are not renewed or are reduced. Read plainly, the concentration is not in a handful of named buyers but in a small number of payment systems — Medicare, Medicaid and the large PBMs — whose rate decisions apply to a wide slice of the revenue at once. A beginner should treat the absence of a stated number as a gap in the disclosure, not as evidence that the exposure is diversified.

The case for

Buyers argue that the demographic and policy tide runs the right way: care keeps moving out of hospitals into the home because it costs payors less, and BrightSpring is one of the few operators that can supply both the medicines and the clinicians at national scale. They point to 2025 revenue from continuing operations up 28.2% to $12,911 million, to net income turning positive at $104.8 million after a loss the year before, to operating cash flow of $490 million against $24 million in 2024, and to guidance for 2026 revenue of $14,450–$15,000 million with adjusted EBITDA growth faster than revenue growth — evidence, on their reading, that scale is finally converting into cash. They add that the Community Living sale to Sevita simplifies the story down to pharmacy plus clinical care, and that infusion and specialty pharmacy, the fastest-growing part, rides a pipeline of high-cost drugs that has to be dispensed by someone.

The case against

Sellers fear that most of the growth is pass-through, not profit. Nearly nine dollars in ten now come from reselling medicines, and revenue per script rose 33% year over year in Q4 2025 largely because the drugs themselves cost more — revenue that arrives with its own cost attached. Gross profit grew more slowly than revenue in 2025 ($1,518 million on $12,911 million), so the mix shift dilutes margin even when the top line looks strong. They also point to the parts the company cannot control: Medicare and Medicaid rate decisions, PBM contract terms and pharmaceutical supplier relationships, all listed in the company's own risk factors, any one of which can compress a thin spread; to wage pressure and staffing shortages in a service business built on people; and to approximately $2.6 billion of debt as of 31 December 2025 sitting on top of it, with KKR still a controlling presence and its eventual selling intentions an overhang on the shares.

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Compare

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

P/E: 17.6Score: 66Market cap: $3.53B

The largest independent US home and alternate-site infusion provider, competing with BrightSpring's infusion and specialty pharmacy for the same referring physicians, health plans and complex-therapy patients; BrightSpring names it first among its pharmacy competitors.

P/E: 19.4Score: 73Market cap: $2.06B

Competes directly with BrightSpring's Provider Services in personal care, home health and hospice for elderly and disabled patients, largely funded by the same state Medicaid programs and Medicare.

P/E: 22.6Score: 58Market cap: $112.36B

Through Omnicare in long-term care pharmacy and Coram in home infusion, it competes for exactly the same facility contracts and infusion patients that BrightSpring's pharmacy segment serves.

Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.AVAH

Serves the same home-based patients with complex needs through private duty nursing, home health, hospice and home infusion, overlapping both of BrightSpring's segments in many of the same states.

Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.GRDN

A pure-play institutional pharmacy that competes with BrightSpring's PharMerica business for contracts with assisted living, senior living and behavioral health facilities.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$14.37B

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Net Income

$366M

Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$395M

Total Equity

$1.88B

Total Liabilities

$4.53B

Current Ratio

1.59

Interest Coverage

2.94

Debt/EBITDA

5.20

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseFairly Valued

Fair Value

$68.79

Current Price

$56.03

Margin of Safety

+18.5%

Fair Value Range

$50.29 - $87.29

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$78.94
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$78.53
Earnings multiple (P/E):$29.49
Graham growth formula:$57.66
Earnings power value (EPV):$10.74
Justified P/B:$12.89
Dividend discount (Gordon):Not enough data to compute it
P/FFO, funds from operations:$28.70
Mid-cycle earnings:Not enough data to compute it
Revenue multiple:$257.05
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (24B / 1H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+11.22%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

34.39

ROE

10.2%

P/B Ratio

5.48

P/FCF

27.91

Gross Margin

12.4%

ROIC

8.0%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

8.0%

WACC

13.2%

ROIC − WACC

-5.2 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (18)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • Price CAGR 81.05%
  • ROIC 8.0%
  • P/FCF 27.91
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 19.0%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 18.3%
  • Analyst Consensus 96% Buy
  • Earnings Surprise avg 17.2%
  • PEG Ratio 0.63
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.38
  • Net Margin Trend 2.5% vs 0.6%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (8)

  • Gross Margin 12.4%
  • P/B Ratio 5.48
  • Operating Margin 3.1%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Share Dilution 9.2%

Unavailable (1)

  • Dividend Payout NaN%

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

1.38

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

9.2%

Issuing new shares, diluting ownership

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. Jon B. RousseauChairman, President & CEO51
Ms. Jennifer A. PhippsCFO, Executive VP & Corporate Secretary44
Ms. Lisa NalleyChief of Staff & Senior VP of Human Resources52
Ms. Jennifer YowlerSenior VP of Sales & Account Management - PharMerica48
Mr. Scott Greenwell Pharm.D.Executive VP & President of PharMerica-
Mr. Charles H. WardripChief Information Officer-
Mr. David J. Deuchler C.F.A.Senior VP of Strategic Finance & IR and Executive Director of BrightSpring Health Foundation-
Ms. Rachael Kurzer GivensChief Compliance Officer-
Mr. Jeffrey A, Hopper Esq.Legal Counsel-
Mr. Mike McMaudeConsultant57

Audit Risk

7

Board Risk

9

Compensation Risk

8

Shareholder Rights Risk

8

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2026-02-27

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-07-31

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-07-31

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for BTSG, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 2/27/2026NEUTRAL
    BrightSpring (BTSG) Earnings Call Transcript

    Markets Gazette reports that BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) held its earnings call on February 27, 2026. However, the detailed content of the transcript is not yet publicly available. Without access to specific financial data, future guidance, or management commentary, investors lack concrete elements to assess the company's performance or outlook. The absence of information prevents a clear directional analysis, leaving the stock in a holding pattern. The market will remain in suspense until the details are published, which could then trigger significant movements once key data points are released.

via Markets Gazette