ASML Holding N.V. - New York Registry Shares (ASML)
OvervaluedFundamental
59
Price
$1811.67
Market Cap
$661.61B
Part 1 · What the company is worth
Overview
ASML makes the machines that print the microscopic circuit patterns onto silicon wafers, a step called lithography that every advanced chip factory needs. Its most advanced machines use extreme ultraviolet light, a technology ASML spent over a decade developing and is currently the only company in the world able to sell. Chipmakers such as TSMC, Samsung and Intel buy these machines, each costing tens of millions of dollars, to build the world's most advanced processors and memory chips.
How it makes money
ASML sells lithography systems as large, one-time equipment purchases, recognized as revenue when a machine is shipped and accepted by the customer; a growing share also comes from servicing, upgrading and maintaining machines already installed at customer factories over their many-year working life. Because a chip factory cannot run without ASML's most advanced tools, the company can charge prices that reflect the value of the entire fab built around each machine, not just its manufacturing cost.
Revenue by segment
Sales of new lithography machines, the most advanced of which use extreme ultraviolet (EUV) light and are unique to ASML.
Servicing, upgrading and maintaining lithography machines already installed at customer factories, a growing and recurring revenue stream.
Competitive moat
Patents and licences · WideASML is the only company that makes machines capable of extreme ultraviolet lithography, the technology needed to print the smallest, most advanced chip features. Rivals such as Canon and Nikon have not matched this capability, built over more than a decade of research with partners including Zeiss for optics, leaving chipmakers with no alternative supplier for their most advanced factories.
What drives demand
CyclicalDemand follows the capital-spending cycles of a handful of very large chipmakers, who order machines years in advance based on forecasts of future chip demand that do not always come true. Semiconductor investment has historically swung between shortage and oversupply, and ASML's order book rises and falls with those cycles.
Key risks
- Export controls — Export restrictions imposed by the Dutch and US governments limit which customers, particularly in China, ASML may sell its most advanced machines to, and management has guided China's share of revenue down sharply for 2026.
- Customer concentration — A small number of very large chipmakers account for the majority of ASML's revenue, so a delay or cancellation of orders by any one of them has an outsized effect on results.
- Long, uncertain investment cycles — Chipmakers order machines years before they are delivered, based on demand forecasts that can prove wrong; a downturn in chip demand can leave ASML with orders customers no longer want on the original schedule.
- Single-source suppliers — ASML depends on a small number of specialized suppliers, such as Zeiss for optics, for critical components; a disruption at any one of them can delay machine deliveries across the business.
Customer concentration
Top customers account for 38% of revenue
ASML's top two customers together accounted for about 38% of 2025 revenue, reflecting how concentrated advanced chipmaking is among a handful of giants such as TSMC, Samsung and Intel. A pause in any one customer's spending plans is significant.
The case for
Buyers argue that ASML's monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography makes it an unavoidable supplier to every advanced chip factory in the world, and that growing installed-base service revenue adds a steadier income stream on top of the more cyclical machine sales.
The case against
Sellers worry that export controls could permanently shrink ASML's addressable market in China, that revenue is concentrated among a handful of chipmakers whose capital spending swings sharply between cycles, and that today's record orders assume a pace of AI-driven chip demand that may not continue.
Written by the editors, published on August 18, 2026
Direct competitors
Who this company fights with for the same customers
Generated on August 23, 2026 with claude-opus-5 — shared with all users
KLA leads wafer process control and competes head-on with ASML's YieldStar optical metrology and HMI e-beam inspection tools for the same fabs' yield-management spending.
Nikon is the other maker of full production lithography scanners, selling its NSR ArF immersion, ArF dry, KrF and i-line steppers to the same chipmakers ASML supplies.
Canon sells i-line and KrF steppers for mature nodes and is pushing its FPA-1200NZ2C nanoimprint system as a cheaper alternative to ASML's EUV for advanced patterning.
SMEE is the Chinese state-backed lithography maker building domestic DUV scanners for SMIC, Hua Hong and CXMT, the Chinese customers ASML is barred from serving with its most advanced tools.
Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Revenue
$35.33B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Net Income
$10.64B
Trailing 12 months (through 6/30/2026)
Free Cash Flow
$8.44B
Total Equity
$450M
Total Liabilities
$1.98B
Current Ratio
1.33
Interest Coverage
-
Debt/EBITDA
0.15
Earnings Per Share
Revenue & Net Income
Free Cash Flow
Income Breakdown
Historical statement
Margins over time
Debt over time
How heavy the debt is
Growth grid
Growth — Revenue
Fair Value Estimation
Fair Value
$1305.19
Current Price
$1811.67
Margin of Safety
-38.8%
Fair Value Range
$848.37 - $1762.00
Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.
Estimation Methods
Valuation Metrics
P/E Ratio
59.13
ROE
53.9%
P/B Ratio
1471.17
P/FCF
78.41
Gross Margin
52.7%
ROIC
424.9%
Profitability Radar
Value Creation (Economic Moat)
ROIC outlierROIC
424.9%
WACC
16.3%
ROIC − WACC
+408.6 pp
ROIC exceeds the cost of capital — the company is creating value for shareholders.
Fundamental Analysis Criteria
Passed (12)
- Price CAGR 31.58%
- ROIC 424.9%
- Gross Margin 52.7%
- Positive Free Cash Flow
- Current Ratio
- Debt/EBITDA
- ROE 41.5%
- Revenue Growth 5Y 18.5%
- Analyst Consensus 86% Buy
- Earnings Surprise avg 2.6%
- Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 1.22
- Net Margin Trend 28.8% vs 26.8%
Failed (7)
- P/FCF 78.41
- P/B Ratio 1471.17
- Debt/Equity ratio
- CapEx intensity
- DCF valuation (Overvalued)
- PEG Ratio 2.28
- Piotroski F-Score 2/9
Unavailable (8)
- EPS data insufficient
- Dividend Payout NaN%
- Operating Margin NaN%
- Interest Coverage
- Return on Tangible Assets
- Low reliance on intangibles
- Price below Graham Number
- Share Dilution (missing shares data)
Piotroski F-Score
Serious financial concerns
Earnings Quality
High quality: earnings backed by cash
Share Dilution
Buying back shares. Shareholder friendly
Institutional Holdings
No institutional filings reported for this company.
Governance
Executive Team
| Name | Title | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Mr. Christophe D. Fouquet | President, CEO and Chair of the Board of Management | 52 |
| Mr. Roger J. M. Dassen Ph.D. | Executive VP, CFO & Member of the Management Board | 60 |
| Mr. Frederic J. M. Schneider-Maunoury | Executive VP, COO & Member of the Management Board | 64 |
| Mr. James P. Koonmen | Executive VP, Chief Customer Officer & Member of Management Board | 58 |
| Mr. Wayne R. Allan | Executive VP, Chief Strategic Sourcing & Procurement Officer and Member of Management Board | 58 |
| Mr. Marco J. A. Pieters | Executive VP, CTO & Member of Management Board | - |
| Jim Kavanagh | Vice President of Investor Relations | - |
| Ms. Cristina Monteiro | Executive Vice President Human Resources & Organization | - |
| Mr. Ron Kool | Head of Business Performance Improvement | - |
| Herman Boom | Head of Strategic Sourcing & Procurement | - |
Part 2 · The price and when to enter
This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.
Latest News
Recent headlines for ASML, sourced from Markets Gazette.
- 2d agoPOSITIVEChip europei volano dopo che Anthropic svela $518 billion di spesa per l'AI
European semiconductor stocks surged following reports that Anthropic's IPO prospectus reveals a planned $518 billion expenditure on cloud computing and infrastructure over the coming years. This massive investment in AI infrastructure is expected to significantly boost demand for advanced semiconductor solutions. ASML Holding, a key player in chip manufacturing equipment, saw its shares rise by 3.3% in Amsterdam. Other European chipmakers like Infineon Technologies, Aixtron, and STMicroelectronics also experienced notable gains, reflecting broad market optimism for the sector's growth prospects driven by the AI revolution.
- 23d agoPOSITIVEAzioni ASML in rialzo mentre Samsung e TSMC accelerano l'adozione del High NA EUV
ASML Holding N.V. is experiencing a surge in its stock price, with US-listed shares up approximately 3% and Amsterdam-listed shares rising over 1% in pre-market trading. This positive momentum is driven by major semiconductor manufacturers Samsung and TSMC accelerating their adoption of ASML's advanced High Numerical Aperture extreme ultraviolet (High NA EUV) lithography equipment. Samsung plans to implement this cutting-edge technology for DRAM production, while TSMC is preparing to utilize it for advanced logic chips. This significant commitment from key industry players underscores ASML's critical role in enabling the next generation of sophisticated chips, fueled by the burgeoning demand from the artificial intelligence sector. The increased adoption is expected to bolster ASML's growth prospects.
- 8/31/2026POSITIVEBofA individua 3 azioni con potenziale significativo a settembre
Bank of America's equity research team has identified ASML Holding N.V. as a top pick for September, citing its significant potential to outperform the market. Analyst Didier Scemama highlights ASML within the semiconductor equipment sector, suggesting the market has not yet fully priced in an ongoing catalyst. The firm's selection is based on company-specific factors, including a potentially mispriced valuation, an evolving margin story, and an emerging turnaround. This strategic recommendation implies that ASML's current stock price may not reflect its future growth prospects, offering a compelling opportunity for investors.
- 7/15/2026POSITIVEASML is scrambling to build more capacity after blockbuster beat-and-raise quarter
ASML Holding N.V. reported a blockbuster quarter, exceeding expectations and raising its 2026 outlook by up to 19%. The Dutch semiconductor equipment manufacturer's shares surged 6% in pre-market trading following the announcement. This significant beat-and-raise performance indicates robust demand for ASML's advanced lithography systems, crucial for chip production. Investors are likely to view this as a strong indicator of continued growth and market leadership, potentially driving further stock appreciation as the company scrambles to increase capacity to meet this demand.
- 7/13/2026NEUTRALASML is kicking off tech earnings. Here’s what to expect from Europe’s biggest semiconductor supplier.
ASML Holding N.V., Europe's largest semiconductor equipment supplier, is set to release its second-quarter financial results. Analysts anticipate a 15% year-over-year increase in earnings per share. This report marks the beginning of the tech earnings season and will provide insights into the health of the semiconductor industry, a critical sector for global technology advancements. Investors will be closely watching for guidance on future demand and the impact of geopolitical factors on supply chains.
- 6/19/2026NEGATIVEThe China Show 6/19/202US Concerned with ASML Over China Chip Tool | The China Show 6/19/2026
The US is reportedly expressing concerns to ASML Holding N.V. regarding its sales of chip manufacturing equipment to China. This development, highlighted in Bloomberg's 'The China Show,' suggests potential geopolitical pressure on ASML's business operations. ASML is a critical supplier of advanced lithography systems essential for semiconductor production. Any restrictions or heightened scrutiny from the US could impact ASML's revenue streams and market access, particularly concerning its significant Chinese customer base. Investors will monitor any official statements or policy changes that may arise from these discussions.
- 6/17/2026NEUTRALASML CEO Sees Musk’s Terafab as Test for Supply Lines
ASML Holding NV's CEO, Christophe Fouquet, highlighted the critical need to ensure supply chain resilience for new, large-scale projects like Elon Musk's proposed Terafab. The company must proactively address potential supply constraints to meet the demands of such ambitious undertakings. This statement underscores ASML's operational focus on managing complex logistics and production capacity to support its key clients and technological advancements in the semiconductor industry. Investors will monitor ASML's ability to scale its operations effectively.
- 6/12/2026POSITIVEHere's How Much You Would Have Made Owning ASML Holding Stock In The Last 15 Years
ASML Holding N.V. has delivered exceptional returns for investors over the past 15 years, with its stock appreciating significantly. While specific figures are not detailed in this summary, the article highlights the long-term growth potential and investment value of ASML. The company's critical role in the semiconductor supply chain, particularly in advanced lithography technology, underpins this sustained performance. Investors looking for exposure to the high-growth semiconductor industry may find ASML's historical performance indicative of its future prospects.
via Markets Gazette