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Aramark (ARMK)

Overvalued
IndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesUnited States

Fundamental

58

Price

$53.55

Market Cap

$14.30B

Part 1 · What the company is worth

Overview

Aramark is an outsourced food service and facilities management company. Institutions that do not want to run their own kitchens, cafeterias, cleaning or building maintenance hand those operations to Aramark, which staffs and manages them on site. Its clients are universities and school districts, hospitals and senior living communities, corporate offices and manufacturing plants, stadiums, arenas, convention centres, national parks and correctional facilities. Alongside food and beverage it sells facility operations, housekeeping, grounds keeping, energy management, capital project management and procurement services. In fiscal 2025 the company operated in 16 countries with roughly 278,390 employees and reported $18.5 billion of revenue. The uniform rental business that used to sit inside Aramark was spun off, so what remains is food and support services in the United States and abroad.

How it makes money

Revenue comes from multi-year service contracts with institutional clients, and the 10-K describes two forms. Under profit and loss contracts, about 66% of fiscal 2025 revenue, Aramark collects all the revenue generated at the client's site and bears all the costs, so it keeps the upside of higher volumes and absorbs the shortfall when they fall. Under client interest contracts, about 34% of fiscal 2025 revenue, the client reimburses operating costs and pays Aramark a management fee, which is steadier but caps the reward. Contracts run for fixed terms, many longer than a year; education and sports agreements typically run five to fifteen years and often require Aramark to invest capital in the client's facilities up front, recovered over the life of the contract.

Revenue by segment

FSS United States71.4%

Food and support services in the United States, sold to education, healthcare and senior living, business and industry, and sports, leisure and corrections clients. It generated $13,211.9 million of revenue in fiscal 2025.

FSS International28.6%

The same food and facilities services sold outside the United States, across the other countries in which Aramark operates. It generated $5,294.4 million of revenue in fiscal 2025.

Competitive moat

Switching costs · Narrow

Aramark's advantage is the friction of replacing it rather than anything a competitor could not imitate. Contracts are long — five to fifteen years in education and sports — and Aramark often installs capital equipment in the client's building, so changing provider means re-tendering, re-badging hundreds of on-site staff and disrupting a service that students, patients or employees use every day. Its purchasing scale across 16 countries also buys food cheaper than a single institution could. But the service itself is not proprietary: several large caterers bid for the same contracts, clients can bring the function back in house, and every renewal reopens the price. That is a narrow advantage, not a wide one.

What drives demand

Moderately cyclical

Demand is a mix of two different behaviours. Hospitals, schools, senior living and corrections keep serving meals whatever the economy does, which puts a floor under a large part of the business. The rest moves with activity: business and industry revenue follows how many employees are actually in the building, sports and leisure follows attendance at games and events, and both fall quickly when offices empty or venues close. Because so much of the work sits under profit and loss contracts, where Aramark takes the volume risk directly, those swings reach the income statement rather than being absorbed by the client. In fiscal 2025 the drivers management pointed to were new business wins, high retention, student enrolment and meal plan take-up — volume at the client site, not price.

Key risks

  • Losing clients and failing to renew contracts — The company identifies client retention and contract renewal as a risk factor. Revenue depends on keeping existing contracts and winning new ones; contracts have fixed terms and come up for competitive re-tender, and clients may also choose to bring the service back in house.
  • Competition in the services industry — Aramark lists competition among the risks to its business. It bids against other large outsourced food and facilities providers, as well as against the client's option of self-operating, which constrains the prices and margins it can obtain.
  • Rising operating costs that cannot be passed on — The filing flags operating cost pressures together with constraints on pricing. Food, labour and energy costs can rise while contract terms limit how quickly Aramark can raise what it charges clients, compressing profitability.
  • Hiring, retaining and paying staff; unionisation — Risk factors cover the ability to hire and retain personnel, labour cost increases, unionisation of the workforce and liabilities arising from multiemployer pension plans. The business runs on a very large hourly workforce spread across client sites.
  • Food safety and foodborne illness — The company discloses risks relating to food safety and foodborne illness concerns. It serves meals in hospitals, schools and other sensitive settings, where an incident can bring claims, lost contracts and reputational damage.
  • Economic downturns and disruptions to client activity — Item 1A cites unfavourable economic conditions, and separately natural disasters, global calamities, climate change, pandemics, energy shortages and sports strikes. Aramark is paid for meals served and sites operated, so anything that empties an office, a campus or a stadium removes revenue directly.
  • Debt and leverage — The filing lists leverage and debt service among its risk factors: the level of indebtedness and the obligation to service it constrain the company's financial flexibility.
  • Cybersecurity and data privacy — Cybersecurity and data privacy appear among the disclosed risks. Aramark handles employee and client data across many sites and jurisdictions, and a breach or a privacy failure carries legal and operational consequences.

Customer concentration

The filing states that no individual client represents more than 2% of total revenue, with the exception of a number of United States government agencies taken collectively. Aramark does not publish a combined share for its largest customers, so no top-customer figure can be given. In practice the revenue base is spread across thousands of separate site contracts, and the concentration that matters is by sector — education, healthcare, business and industry, sports — rather than by named client.

The case for

Buyers argue that a large share of institutional food service is still run in house, so Aramark's market can grow simply by convincing more universities, hospitals and companies to outsource. They point to fiscal 2025, when both segments grew — FSS United States to $13,211.9 million and FSS International to $5,294.4 million, the latter up 9.8% — on what management described as record new business and high retention, and to guidance for fiscal 2026 revenue of $19.55 to $19.95 billion with adjusted operating income growing faster than revenue. They add that the spin-off of the uniform business leaves a simpler company, that long contracts with embedded capital make revenue visible years ahead, and that purchasing scale across 16 countries widens margins as volume rises.

The case against

Sellers fear a business that turns a great deal of revenue into very little profit: $18.5 billion of fiscal 2025 revenue produced $791.8 million of operating income and $326.4 million of net income attributable to Aramark, so a small move in food or labour cost matters more than a large move in sales. They note that about 66% of revenue sits in profit and loss contracts where Aramark carries the volume risk itself, that contracts come up for competitive re-tender against other large caterers and against the client's option to self-operate, and that winning education and sports work often requires putting capital into someone else's building before the revenue arrives. They also point to the debt and leverage the company lists among its own risk factors, and to the exposure of business and industry and sports revenue to how full offices and venues actually are.

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Direct competitors

Who this company fights with for the same customers

Generated on September 18, 2026 with claude-haiku-4-5 — shared with all users

Compass Group plcCPG

The largest contract caterer in the world and the rival Aramark names first in both its US and international segments, bidding for the same college, hospital, corporate and stadium foodservice contracts.

Sodexo S.A.SW

The French group competes head-on with Aramark in both segments, offering the same outsourced catering and facilities management to schools, hospitals and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.

Delaware North Companies, Inc.Not tracked

A privately held US operator that Aramark names as a domestic competitor and meets directly in stadium, arena, airport and national-park hospitality contracts.

Elior Group S.A.ELIOR

Named by Aramark as an international competitor, it bids for the same education, healthcare and business catering contracts across continental Europe, and also operates in the United States.

ISS A/SISS

The Danish group, named by Aramark among its international competitors, sells integrated facilities management with catering included to the same large corporate and public-sector clients.

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Revenue

$19.85B

Trailing 12 months (through 7/3/2026)

Net Income

$383M

Trailing 12 months (through 7/3/2026)

Free Cash Flow

$432M

Total Equity

$3.15B

Total Liabilities

$10.16B

Current Ratio

1.28

Interest Coverage

2.17

Debt/EBITDA

5.10

Earnings Per Share

Revenue & Net Income

Free Cash Flow

Income Breakdown

Historical statement

Margins over time

Debt over time

How heavy the debt is

Growth grid

Growth — Revenue

Fair Value Estimation

General caseOvervalued

Fair Value

$42.11

Current Price

$53.55

Margin of Safety

-27.2%

Fair Value Range

$27.37 - $56.85

Spread across the valuation methods used, not a statistically calibrated confidence interval.

Estimation Methods

Analyst price target:$68.50
Discounted cash flow (DCF):$32.42
Earnings multiple (P/E):$28.86
Graham growth formula:$23.28
Earnings power value (EPV):$24.22
Justified P/B:$14.09
Dividend discount (Gordon):$6.65
P/FFO, funds from operations:$48.72
Mid-cycle earnings:$68.17
Revenue multiple:$210.17
Analyst Consensus:Strong Buy (19B / 3H / 0S)
Last Earnings Surprise:+5.05%

Valuation Metrics

P/E Ratio

37.45

ROE

10.4%

P/B Ratio

4.16

P/FCF

32.62

Gross Margin

-

ROIC

6.3%

Profitability Radar

Value Creation (Economic Moat)

ROIC

6.3%

WACC

8.7%

ROIC − WACC

-2.4 pp

ROIC is below the cost of capital — the company is destroying value for every dollar invested.

Fundamental Analysis Criteria

Passed (16)

  • EPS shows upward trend
  • EPS CAGR 7.27%
  • Price CAGR 8.55%
  • ROIC 6.3%
  • Debt/Equity ratio
  • Positive Free Cash Flow
  • Current Ratio
  • Interest Coverage
  • Debt/EBITDA
  • Return on Tangible Assets
  • ROE 11.8%
  • Revenue Growth 5Y 7.6%
  • Analyst Consensus 86% Buy
  • Earnings Quality (OCF/NI) 2.38
  • Share Dilution 0.9%
  • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

Failed (9)

  • P/FCF 32.62
  • P/B Ratio 4.16
  • Operating Margin 4.4%
  • CapEx intensity
  • Low reliance on intangibles
  • Price below Graham Number
  • DCF valuation (Overvalued)
  • Earnings Surprise avg -2.7%
  • Net Margin Trend 1.9% vs 2.0%

Unavailable (3)

  • Gross Margin NaN%
  • Dividend Payout NaN%
  • PEG Ratio (need PE > 0 and growth > 0)

Piotroski F-Score

7/9

Strong financial health

score
criteria

Earnings Quality

2.38

High quality: earnings backed by cash

Share Dilution

0.9%

Share count is stable

Institutional Holdings

Governance

Executive Team

NameTitleAge
Mr. John J. ZillmerCEO & Director70
Mr. James J. TarangeloExecutive VP & CFO52
Ms. Lauren A. HarringtonExecutive VP & General Counsel50
Ms. Abigail A. CharpentierExecutive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer50
Mr. Marc A. BrunoChief Operating Officer of U.S. Food & Facilities53
Mr. Jack DonovanPresident67
Mr. Carl MittlemanChief Operating Officer of International-
Mr. Christopher T. SchillingSenior VP, Controller, Principal Accounting Officer & Chief Accounting Officer52
Ms. Felise Glantz KissellInvestor Relations & Corporate Affairs Executive-
Ms. Alison BirdwellPresident of Sports & Entertainment-

Audit Risk

3

Board Risk

1

Compensation Risk

2

Shareholder Rights Risk

2

Part 2 · The price and when to enter

This part won't tell you whether the company is worth owning: it helps you choose when to buy it, once the fundamentals have convinced you. Inside: technical analysis, potential, historical drawdowns, gamma exposure.

Documents

  • Annual Report (10-K)

    A yearly overview of the business, its financial results, and the risks it faces.

    Filed on 2025-11-25

    View document
  • Quarterly Report (10-Q)

    A snapshot of financial performance for the most recent three-month period.

    Filed on 2026-08-11

    View document
  • Current Report (8-K)

    An announcement of a major event, such as a leadership change or big news.

    Filed on 2026-08-11

    View document

via SEC EDGAR

Income History

via SEC EDGAR

Latest News

Recent headlines for ARMK, sourced from Markets Gazette.

  • 5/12/2026POSITIVE
    AI Infrastructure Spending Is Creating An Unlikely Winner: Aramark

    Aramark (ARMK) shares surged to a 52-week high following a strong Q2 performance that surpassed Wall Street's earnings and revenue expectations. The company also provided its fiscal 2026 outlook, which is expected to be favorable. This positive momentum suggests robust operational execution and potentially improved market positioning, which could be further amplified by the ongoing AI infrastructure spending trends mentioned in the broader context. Investors will be closely watching the fiscal 2026 guidance for confirmation of sustained growth.

via Markets Gazette